A wave of recent polling is flashing warning signs for President Donald Trump and his party: his job approval has fallen to a new low in his second term, fractures are appearing inside his broader Republican coalition, Hispanic backing is slipping, Democrats are suddenly competitive in solid-red seats, and national averages now place Trump in negative territory across all major surveys.
Why It Matters
Taken together, these surveys point to diminished public support, growing disagreement among Republican-leaning voters, and meaningful Democratic gains—even in districts long considered safely conservative. If these patterns hold, they could alter control of Congress and weigh heavily on the GOP’s national outlook heading into 2028 and beyond.
What To Know
Politico Poll: Trump’s Coalition Shows Strain
More than one-third of Trump’s 2024 voters no longer consider themselves MAGA Republicans, according to a Politico poll. These voters are less inclined to back Republican candidates further down the ballot and are increasingly critical of Trump’s record on the economy and cost of living. Only 63 percent of them say they trust Republicans on economic issues, compared with 88 percent of self-identified MAGA supporters.
Gallup Poll: Approval Rating Slides to a New Low
Gallup now pegs Trump’s second-term approval at 36 percent, with 60 percent disapproving. Support among Republicans has dropped 7 points to 84 percent, while approval from independents has fallen 8 points to 25 percent. Trump receives relatively better marks on crime, but confidence in his stewardship of the economy, immigration, and the federal budget continues to decline.
Emerson College/The Hill Poll: Deep-Red District Tightens
An Emerson College/The Hill survey finds a surprisingly close contest in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District—a seat Trump carried by 22 points in 2024. Democrat Aftyn Behn now trails Republican Matt Van Epps by just 2 points, placing the race within the margin of error and signaling potential vulnerability for Republicans in even their most reliable territory.
Pew Research Center Poll: Rising Frustration Among Hispanic Voters
Recent polling from the Pew Research Center shows growing dissatisfaction with Trump among Hispanic adults. Two-thirds disapprove of his handling of immigration, and 61 percent say his economic policies have left them worse off. While Trump made gains with Hispanic voters in 2024, that progress appears to be slipping: only 25 percent now view him favorably, down from 44 percent before his second term began.
Ballotpedia Polling Index: Approval Underwater Nationally
Ballotpedia’s polling index, which compiles major national surveys from organizations including YouGov, CBS News, Fox News, Reuters, and The Associated Press, puts Trump’s average approval at 42 percent, with 55 percent disapproving. That leaves his net standing negative across every major national poll in the index.
What People Are Saying
Aftyn Behn, the Democratic candidate in Tennessee’s 7th District, previously told CNN:
“If we get with a certain number of points or if we flip it, that it will signal to Washington Republicans that this agenda that they’ve been running on is not welcomed and is not favorable by most voters, especially in deep-red territory.”
Republican pollster Daron Shaw told Fox News:
“People are struggling to afford necessities and blaming those in charge. What’s interesting is watching Democrats gain politically from a problem they arguably caused—and that crushed them in 2024.”
White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson told the Daily Mail that in less than a year, Trump has:
“Already delivered on many of the promises he was elected to enact, but there will always be more to accomplish.”
What Happens Next
The 2026 midterm elections will be the first major test of these shifting dynamics, with control of Congress directly at stake. Before then, the December 2 special election in Tennessee—where Democrats have a chance to flip a deeply conservative seat—will offer an early indication of whether these polling trends are beginning to translate into actual votes.
