President Donald Trump is aggressively promoting his sweeping new domestic policy bill—but some of his major claims don’t hold up to scrutiny.
During a Thursday speech at the White House, President Trump insisted that Medicaid remains “left the same” under the legislation, that it includes “no tax” on Social Security benefits, and warned of a “68% tax increase” if Congress fails to pass the measure. Independent analysis and legislative text tell a different story.
Medicaid Cuts Denied by Trump
Claim: “Your Medicaid is left alone. It’s left the same.”
Fact Check: False. The House-passed version of the bill includes sweeping changes to Medicaid. According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), it would slash hundreds of billions in funding over a decade—leading to an estimated 7.8 million more uninsured Americans by 2034.
The bill would impose work requirements for able-bodied adults without dependents, restrict eligibility, and reduce federal funding to states that provide benefits to undocumented immigrants. These are substantial shifts—not status quo.
Asked about the contradiction, the White House offered background material defending the policy changes but did not attempt to verify Trump’s statement.
Social Security Tax Promise Not Fully Delivered
Claim: The bill guarantees “no tax” on Social Security benefits.
Fact Check: False. While the bill offers a temporary boost in the standard deduction for seniors—$4,000 in the House version and $6,000 in the Senate draft—it does not eliminate taxes on Social Security income. For higher-income seniors, the deduction phases out entirely.
Though the White House says the vast majority of seniors would see their Social Security benefits go untaxed, President Trump’s statement was absolute. His campaign pledge to eliminate these taxes entirely remains unfulfilled.
The “68% Tax Increase” Warning
Claim: “If the bill doesn’t pass, there’ll be a 68% tax increase.”
Fact Check: False. There is no credible estimate supporting that figure. The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center estimates an average tax increase of 7.5% in 2026 if provisions from Trump’s 2017 tax cuts are allowed to expire.
While about 64% of households would face higher taxes without the new bill, that’s not the same as a 68% increase in taxes. Analysts suggest Trump may be misrepresenting that 64% figure as a tax rate hike.
Despite repeated public use of the figure, neither the White House nor outside experts have substantiated the claim.
President Trump’s domestic policy push is significant, but several of the claims he’s using to sell it do not reflect what the legislation actually does. While the White House emphasizes the bill’s benefits, it has stopped short of directly defending the president’s misstatements.
