Arizona’s Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs holds a narrow lead over two possible Republican challengers in her 2026 reelection race, according to a new poll.
Newsweek reached out to Hobbs and the two GOP contenders, Representative Andy Biggs and Karrin Taylor Robson, for comment on Friday.
Why It Matters
In 2022, Hobbs barely won the governor’s race against Republican Kari Lake, a strong supporter of President Donald Trump, with 50.3 percent of the vote compared to Lake’s 49.7 percent.
Winning reelection in a state that supported President Donald Trump with 52.2 percent of the vote in the November 2024 election would be a major accomplishment for Hobbs and the Democratic Party.
What To Know
The survey, conducted by Noble Predictive Insights, polled 948 registered Arizona voters between August 8 and 11.
If Robson, an attorney and former member of the Arizona Board of Regents, becomes the Republican nominee, the poll shows Hobbs winning reelection with 40 percent of the vote against Robson’s 38 percent. Nineteen percent of respondents said they were “not sure,” while 4 percent chose a third-party candidate.
If Biggs, a current House Republican, is the nominee, Hobbs would receive 39 percent compared to his 37 percent. Again, 19 percent of voters were undecided, and 4 percent backed a third-party option.
The poll also revealed that 34 percent of Arizona voters had a favorable view of Robson, while 30 percent viewed her unfavorably, giving her a net approval rating of +4.
For Biggs, 27 percent of voters viewed him favorably, while 26 percent viewed him unfavorably, giving him a net approval rating of +1.
Robson previously ran in the 2022 Republican primary for governor but lost to Lake.
After that loss, Lake refused to concede, claiming the election was rigged against her. She launched several legal challenges, none of which changed the outcome.
What People Are Saying
A Robson campaign spokesperson told Newsweek: “This poll confirms that Trump-endorsed conservative businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson is the best-positioned candidate to win the GOP nomination and beat radical Governor Katie Hobbs, the most disastrous and unpopular governor in the country.”
Tom Bevan, co-founder of RealClearPolitics, wrote on X: “New poll shows why Katie Hobbs is the most vulnerable incumbent governor in America. She’s at 39/40% support against both possible GOP challengers.”
President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social in April: “I like Karrin Taylor Robson of Arizona a lot, and when she asked me to Endorse her, with nobody else running, I Endorsed her, and was happy to do so.
“When Andy Biggs decided to run for Governor, quite unexpectedly, I had a problem — Two fantastic candidates, two terrific people, two wonderful champions, and it is therefore my Great Honor TO GIVE MY COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT TO BOTH. Either one will never let you down. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
What Happens Next
The next Arizona gubernatorial election will be held on November 3, 2026.
