President Donald Trump counts U.S. farmers among his most loyal supporters, but his administration’s recent move to extend economic aid to Argentina has sparked frustration across America’s agricultural sector.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent shared on social media Wednesday that he and President Trump spoke at length with Argentina’s President Javier Milei regarding financial support aimed at stabilizing the South American nation. The Treasury is negotiating a $20 billion swap line with Argentina’s central bank, Bessent said on X.com. As part of this effort to bolster capital flows, Argentina also suspended export taxes this week—including those on soybeans.
Amid these negotiations, Argentina reportedly strengthened its trade partnership with China, which purchased at least 10 cargoes of soybeans from the country, according to Reuters, citing multiple traders.
For U.S. soybean farmers, who rely heavily on exports to China, the developments are a major blow. Tariffs have already priced American soybeans out of the global market during a critical harvest season. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly export summaries, China has not bought U.S. soybeans since May.
“The frustration is overwhelming,” said American Soybean Association (ASA) President Caleb Ragland on Wednesday. “U.S. soybean prices are falling, harvest is underway, and farmers read headlines not about securing a trade agreement with China, but that the U.S. government is extending $200 billion in economic support to Argentina while that country drops its soybean export taxes to sell 20 shiploads of Argentine soybeans to China in just two days. The farm economy is suffering while our competitors supplant the United States in the biggest soybean import market in the world.”
Soybeans made up nearly 20% of U.S. cash crop receipts in 2024, totaling $46.8 billion, according to USDA data. Roughly a quarter of all U.S. soybean exports go to China, but retaliatory tariffs—currently at 34%—have hampered American farmers, while countries like Brazil and Argentina have gained market share. As of 2024, Brazil accounted for 71% of China’s soybean imports, up from just 2% thirty years ago.
“This isn’t personal—it’s business,” said Ryan Loy, assistant professor and extension economist for the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture. “There’s a lot of politics involved, but at the end of the day, it’s a function of who is cheaper on the market.”
Economic Strain on Rural Communities
The market squeeze hits rural communities particularly hard, where agriculture can account for up to 20% of local employment. With U.S. soybean exports to China lagging, profits for farmers are down.
In Midwest states such as North and South Dakota and Minnesota, most soybeans are shipped via Pacific Northwest ports for overseas export. With fewer shipments leaving the country, supply is piling up, pushing prices down. Since peaking in 2022, soybean prices have dropped roughly 40%.
While some soybeans are redirected to crushing facilities for oil or ethanol, many farms are not near processing plants. Kyle Jore, an economist and farmer in Thief River Falls, Minnesota, noted that even if a trade deal with China were finalized today, transportation is at capacity due to the busy corn harvest.
“We’re probably just going to plan to sit on the soybeans and wait,” Jore said.
Some farmers sell their crops to agricultural co-ops at reduced prices to cut losses. “In the meantime, though, the producers that sell are taking large losses. And they’re going to have to feel those losses,” Jore said.
Loy warned of broader consequences. “If farms in these rural communities aren’t successful, the communities suffer too. Agriculture supports local businesses, and if farms fail, businesses close and people leave.”
Echoes of the 2018 Trade War
For many farmers, the situation feels like déjà vu. During Trump’s first term, U.S. farmers lost $27 billion in agricultural exports between mid-2018 and 2019 due to a trade war with China. U.S. market share of Chinese soybean imports hit a 30-year low of 19%, while Brazil’s share reached 75%, the ASA reported. Many farmers have yet to fully recover.
Todd Main, director of market development at the Illinois Soybean Association, said, “The takeaway from the last trade war is that the U.S. lost about 20% of our market share, and it never came back.”
Some producers have explored alternative markets, such as the European Union, which accounted for $2.45 billion in U.S. soybean exports in 2024 compared to China’s $12.64 billion. However, steep tariffs have raised the cost of machinery and inputs. According to North Dakota State University Agricultural Trade Monitor data, tractors now face tariffs exceeding 15%, while herbicides and pesticides are up 25%, partly due to trade disputes with Canada.
“Even though revenues were similar to 2018, this time our input costs are much higher, so our margins are more negative,” Jore said.
Seeking Stability Beyond Bailouts
Soybean producers are looking for new ways to grow revenue outside of China. The Illinois Soybean Association created the Soy Innovation Center to develop sustainable domestic uses for processed soy, including oil.
The White House has floated agricultural subsidy programs funded by tariffs. During Trump’s first term, a $28 billion bailout nearly replaced lost revenues, but restoring global market share is a slower, uncertain process. Wendong Zhang, associate professor of applied economics at Cornell University, said, “It will compensate for immediate losses but doesn’t necessarily improve long-term competitiveness on the global stage.”
Farmers, however, are seeking trade solutions rather than bailouts. “We can grow anything. What we really want is good relations with our trading partners,” Main said. “We want markets. We don’t want bailouts.”
