Republican Mike Rogers is polling just behind leading Democrats in the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Michigan, according to new data that signals a highly competitive battle ahead.
With Senator Gary Peters declining to seek another term, the open seat has become a top priority for both parties. Historically, the president’s party often loses ground in midterm elections, but Democrats believe they can hold this seat — and the new poll highlights how narrow the margins may be.
A representative for state Senator Mallory McMorrow said the polling shows she “has the momentum in the primary and is the only candidate who beats Rogers in the general [election].”
Joetta Appiah, spokesperson for U.S. Representative Haley Stevens, said the poll indicates she is “the strongest candidate to defeat Rogers and keep Michigan’s must-win Senate seat blue.”
Why It Matters
Keeping Michigan blue is crucial to Democratic hopes of regaining control of the Senate next year.
Michigan remains one of the most competitive presidential battlegrounds — shifting between both parties in close elections. Donald Trump carried the state in 2016 and 2024, while Joe Biden narrowly won it in 2020.
What To Know
Three major Democrats are competing in the primary: Stevens, McMorrow, and progressive contender Abdul El-Sayed. The latter was not included in the latest polling. Rogers, a former congressman who narrowly lost a Senate race last year, is widely seen as the Republican frontrunner.
The EPIC-MRA poll, first shared by the Detroit Free Press, shows:
- Haley Stevens vs. Mike Rogers: 44% – 42%
- Mallory McMorrow vs. Mike Rogers: 43% – 42%
The survey included 600 Michigan residents between November 6–11 and has a margin of error of ±4 percentage points.
David Dulio, political science professor and director of the Center for Civic Engagement at Oakland University, said the Senate contest is expected to be “very close,” noting Michigan’s long history of tight statewide races.
McMorrow and El-Sayed are both appealing to progressive voters, while Stevens is positioning herself as a more traditional Democrat. Determining who the strongest nominee will be is still an open question, Dulio added, as the party continues to debate its direction.
Trump won Michigan by about 1.4 points last November, as Kamala Harris struggled in key areas like Dearborn amid backlash surrounding U.S. support for Israel. Meanwhile, Democrat Elissa Slotkin edged out Rogers by less than half a point in their Senate matchup.
What People Are Saying
Hannah Lindow, for McMorrow’s campaign:
“Recent polls show that Senator McMorrow has the momentum in the primary and is the only candidate who beats Rogers in the general. She is precisely the type of leader Michiganders are hungry for in this moment.”
Joetta Appiah, for Stevens’ campaign:
“This is the latest poll confirming that Haley Stevens is the strongest candidate to defeat Mike Rogers and keep Michigan’s must-win Senate seat blue. While Mike Rogers wants to rubber-stamp Trump’s price-hiking, chaos agenda, Haley Stevens is focused on lowering costs and strengthening Michigan’s manufacturing future.”
Senator Bernie Sanders endorsed Abdul El-Sayed:
“We need candidates who will fight for the working class…Dr. @AbdulElSayed is that leader.”
Senator Martin Heinrich endorsed McMorrow:
“We need leaders with the energy to fight, the experience to deliver, and the courage to call B.S. when they see it.”
Donald Trump, endorsing Rogers, via the Michigan Advance:
“Mike has served our Nation with distinction, and will bring that same Fighting Spirit to the U.S. Senate.”
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi supports Stevens:
“Haley is well equipped to stand up to Donald Trump’s chaos, lower costs for our families and ensure every Michigander can thrive.”
What Happens Next
Political analysts at The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball currently label the race a toss-up. Over the next several months, candidates will focus on making their case ahead of Michigan’s August primary — and the outcome could shape control of the Senate in 2026.
