Democrats are looking for a path to Senate control in November 2026 despite a difficult electoral map, arguing that early polling suggests several contests in states carried by President Donald Trump could tighten into true battlegrounds.
Republicans dismiss that premise. In a statement to Newsweek, National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Regional Press Secretary Nick Puglia said Democrats are “the most unpopular they’ve ever been.”
Why It Matters
About one-third of Senate seats will be on the ballot in November 2026. While Democrats see clearer opportunities to compete for the House, the Senate math is far less forgiving. Republicans currently hold 53 seats to Democrats’ 47, meaning Democrats would need to net four seats to claim a majority—likely requiring wins in states that have leaned more conservative in recent cycles.
What to Know
Democrats’ best pickup targets are widely viewed as:
- Maine, where GOP Sen. Susan Collins is up for reelection in a state Trump has lost in all three of his presidential runs.
- North Carolina, where retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis holds a seat in a state Trump carried by roughly 3 points last November.
Beyond those, the map leaves Democrats with limited obvious openings. No other Republican senators from either single-digit Trump states or states won by former Vice President Kamala Harris are up in 2026—raising the likelihood that Democrats would need to break through in deeper-red territory to reach a majority.
At the same time, Democrats are defending seats in Trump-won states, including Georgia, held by Sen. Jon Ossoff, and Michigan, where Sen. Gary Peters is retiring.
Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington, told Newsweek that the Senate “seems more likely to remain in Republican hands than not.”
“Democrats have good pickup opportunities in NC and ME—and perhaps an outside chance in Ohio,” Farnsworth said. “Even so, a very good election night for Democrats in the upper chamber would only bring the Senate to 50-50, with a Republican VP serving as the tie-breaker.”
Farnsworth also said Republicans’ ability to frame the economy could be pivotal.
“Voters will not be distracted from poor economic performance,” he said. “Republicans need voters to feel better about their financial situation—and soon—if they hope to retain control of the House.”
The Cook Political Report currently lists five Republican-held seats as potentially competitive. Maine and North Carolina are rated as toss-ups; Ohio is rated Leans Republican; and Iowa and Texas are rated Likely Republican.
Below is a closer look at the Republican-held seats seen as the most competitive heading into the midterms.
Maine
Collins has survived difficult political environments before—most recently in 2020, when she won even as former President Joe Biden carried Maine by 9 points. But 2026 could be her toughest test yet. Even as the national electorate shifted about 6 points rightward in 2024, Maine remained relatively steady, backing Harris by 7 points.
The Democratic nomination is not settled. Maine Democrats are preparing for a competitive primary between Gov. Janet Mills and Graham Platner.
Mills’ track record of winning by comfortable margins has led many Democrats to view her as the strongest general-election challenger. Some more progressive voters, however, argue Platner could bring a fresher, more energizing message as a new-generation candidate. Platner has faced criticism over older social media posts, though it remains unclear how much that has affected the race.
Polling has shown a tight contest:
- A Pan Atlantic Research poll of 820 likely voters (Nov. 29–Dec. 7, 2025) found Collins and Mills tied at 43% apiece, while Platner led Collins 43% to 42%.
- A Maine People’s Research Center poll of 783 likely voters (Oct. 26–29, 2025; ±3.5%) had Collins ahead of Mills 46% to 42%, but showed Platner leading Collins 45% to 41% in a separate matchup.
North Carolina
North Carolina is Democrats’ other top target. Trump carried the state by about 3 points last November, and it remains one of the most closely divided battlegrounds in the country.
Democrats have not won a Senate race in the state since 2008, but party leaders believe former Gov. Roy Cooper could be positioned to flip the seat. Republicans have rallied behind Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chair, who has received support from Trump.
Early polling has favored Cooper:
- A Harper Polling survey of 600 likely voters (Nov. 9–10, 2025; ±4%) showed Cooper leading 47% to 39%.
- A Change Research survey of 855 likely voters (Sept. 2–8, 2025; ±3.6%) put Cooper ahead 48% to 41%.
Ohio
Once a premier swing state, Ohio has trended more Republican over the past decade, backing Trump in each of his presidential campaigns. Still, Democrats believe the race for the remainder of Vice President JD Vance’s term could become competitive.
Sen. Jon Husted, appointed after Trump and Vance’s victory last November, is widely viewed as the likely Republican nominee. On the Democratic side, former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost reelection last November, is considered the frontrunner. Ohio backed Trump by about 11 points last November.
Recent surveys point to a close contest:
- An Emerson College poll of 850 registered voters (Dec. 6–8, 2025) showed Husted up 49% to 46%.
- A Bowling Green State University survey of 800 registered voters (Oct. 2–14, 2025) found Brown narrowly ahead 49% to 48%.
Texas
Democrats have long argued Texas is inching toward swing-state status, though that shift has not yet produced statewide victories. They hope the 2026 midterms could offer another opportunity to make gains in the nation’s largest red state.
How competitive the race becomes may hinge on primary outcomes.
On the Republican side, Sen. John Cornyn is facing a challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt. Cornyn is generally viewed as the stronger general-election incumbent, and polling suggests he would perform better than his primary rivals.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Jasmine Crockett is facing state legislator James Talarico. Crockett’s national profile has grown quickly, and early polling has shown her with an advantage in the primary.
A University of Houston/Texas Southern University poll of 1,650 registered voters (Sept. 19–Oct. 1, 2025) found:
- Cornyn leading Crockett 50% to 44% and Talarico 48% to 45%
- Paxton leading Crockett 49% to 47% and Talarico 49% to 46%
- Hunt leading Crockett 50% to 45% and Talarico 50% to 44%
Iowa
Democrats are also watching Iowa, where GOP Sen. Joni Ernst is not running again. Like Ohio, Iowa has drifted away from Democrats during the Trump era, backing him by 13 points last November.
Republican candidates include Rep. Ashley Hinson—endorsed by Trump—and former state Sen. Jim Carlin. Democratic contenders include state Sen. Zach Wahls, state Rep. Josh Turek, and KNIA market director Nathan Sage.
There have been no polls in the race since Ernst announced she would not seek reelection.
What People Are Saying
NRSC Regional Press Secretary Nick Puglia told Newsweek: “Democrats are the most unpopular they’ve ever been with the American people. Radical leftists like Jon Ossoff, Janet Mills and Roy Cooper think the answer is more progressive policies like men in women’s sports and higher taxes. Good luck with that.”
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Maeve Coyle wrote in an October statement: “This week, as open enrollment begins, millions of Americans across the country are receiving notices that their health care premiums have skyrocketed—in many cases doubling or more—because Senate Republicans continue refusing to address the health care crisis that they created. These health care price hikes will hurt working families and will be an electoral albatross for every Republican Senator and candidate who created this crisis, and voters will hold them accountable in 2026.”
What Happens Next
Candidates will spend the coming months building organizations, raising money, and sharpening their messages ahead of key primaries and a general election likely dominated by national mood. Trump’s approval rating and the state of the economy are expected to be central factors shaping the 2026 midterms.
