After nearly four decades of weathering wars, economic hardship, and domestic unrest, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei now faces the greatest crisis of his rule — and possibly its last chapter.
The recent coordinated strikes by Israel and the United States have inflicted severe damage on Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure, leaving Khamenei with few viable responses. The stakes are enormous — for Iran, the region, and a regime built on defiance of the West. But for the 86-year-old leader in declining health and without a clear successor, the path forward is fraught with risk and uncertainty.
The exact toll from the attacks remains unclear, but what is certain is that they hit the core of the Islamic Republic’s power. Several senior commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were killed, nuclear enrichment facilities were crippled, and key scientists were assassinated. The elite military force that enforces Khamenei’s vision has been dealt a historic blow.
Billions of dollars invested in Iran’s nuclear program evaporated in just under two weeks, adding to the financial pain of an already sanctions-strangled economy. Long a master of backchannel diplomacy and survival politics, Khamenei now leads a regime that’s rigid, weakened, and cornered.
His absence from public funerals for fallen commanders and his decision to deliver war-time messages from an undisclosed location underscored just how seriously his safety is being guarded. It wasn’t until after a ceasefire that he appeared in a video address, denouncing the U.S. and Israel while insisting Iran had won.
“This president exposed that truth — the Americans will only be satisfied with Iran’s total surrender,” Khamenei said of Trump. “And nothing less.”
Trump quickly shot back:
“You got beat to hell,” he said, dismissing Khamenei’s claim of victory.
A Regime Stripped of Its Leverage
Khamenei has spent decades building up Iran’s regional influence through a sophisticated web of armed proxy groups and an ever-advancing nuclear program. But both are now in disarray.
His allies — militias in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Syria — are badly depleted by Israeli operations. The nuclear program, once seen as Iran’s ultimate deterrent, lies in ruins. Intelligence failures exposed by the attacks have rattled confidence in the regime’s ability to protect even its most sensitive assets.
“The doctrine of deterrence has failed,” said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group. “The regime lives to fight another day, but it has emerged significantly weakened.”
From Defiance to Isolation
When Khamenei took power in 1989, Iran was a war-ravaged nation facing deep isolation. Over the decades, he has brutally suppressed dissent, kept a tight grip on power, and fended off foreign pressure. But today’s Iran is fractured — economically battered, politically stagnant, and socially disillusioned.
Past mass protests over women’s rights and election fraud have shaken the foundations of the Islamic Republic. External pressure has been relentless: exiled media campaigns, cyberattacks, assassinations, and foreign spy networks operating inside Iran.
But never before — not even during the Iran-Iraq War — has the Islamic Republic been directly attacked by both the U.S. and Israel on its own soil. And never has a U.S. president so openly threatened Khamenei’s life, as Trump did in a now-deleted social media post.
A Nuclear Gambit?
Khamenei’s fatwa against nuclear weapons has long been cited as evidence of Iran’s peaceful intentions. But some fear he may now consider reversing that position to regain lost deterrence.
Iran’s parliament has already voted to end cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog. While Tehran continues to insist its nuclear work is peaceful, Trump has left little room for ambiguity.
Asked whether he would strike Iran again if uranium enrichment crosses a red line, Trump said:
“Sure, without question, absolutely.”
He later added:
“The last thing Iran’s thinking about is a nuclear weapon.”
Yet analysts caution that the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran — even if bluster — could be the regime’s last remaining card. Whether Khamenei plays it depends on whether he’s seeking to survive or escalate.
A Moment for Reform — or Retrenchment?
In his speech, Khamenei spoke of national unity, portraying the response to the Israeli strikes as a rare moment of collective Iranian resolve.
“By God’s grace, a nation of nearly 90 million stood as one,” he declared.
That unity, however, may be fleeting. Repression could tighten as the regime tries to regain control and suppress growing dissatisfaction. Reform — political or economic — remains unlikely under Khamenei, who has shown little interest in compromise or opening.
“He’s more likely to double down than change course,” Vaez said. “And that may be a fatal miscalculation.”
Regional Realignment and Distrust of the West
While some Arab neighbors have shown interest in repairing ties with Tehran to avoid another costly conflict, Khamenei’s deep distrust of the West complicates diplomatic options. His bitterness toward Trump, who scrapped the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, runs deep.
Iranian officials told CNN that talks with the U.S. — including the possibility of sanctions relief and $30 billion in support for a civilian nuclear program — may now be off the table due to Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric.
“If President Trump is serious about a deal,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X, “he should stop insulting our Supreme Leader and alienating millions of his supporters.”
A Regime Without a Roadmap
As the dust settles, Iran is left without a clear path forward. Khamenei remains the most powerful figure in the country, but his grip is no longer absolute. The regime he built is shaken — its deterrence undermined, its economy in tatters, and its future leadership uncertain.
He may cling to power. He may seek revenge. He may try to recalibrate. But as he approaches the twilight of his rule, Khamenei is running out of time — and options — to define the legacy of the republic he has led for more than three decades.
