Uterine cancer diagnoses in the U.S. are projected to rise sharply by 2050, with Black women expected to bear the greatest burden, according to a new study from the American Association for Cancer Research. The data show that Black women may be three times more likely to die from the disease compared to their white counterparts.
Currently the most common gynecologic cancer in the U.S., uterine cancer accounted for nearly 70,000 new cases in 2024, according to the National Cancer Institute (NCI). Over the last three decades, both cases and deaths from the disease have steadily increased, with new diagnoses rising by about 2% each year from 2015 to 2019 — the highest rate of increase for any cancer in women.
Why the Surge?
Researchers at Columbia University used computer modeling and population data to estimate future trends. They predict that uterine cancer diagnoses will increase by over 50% for Black women and around 30% for white women by 2050.
Dr. Elena Elkin, a researcher at Columbia’s Mailman School of Public Health and co-author of the study, said two key drivers are aging and obesity.
“Like many cancers, uterine cancer is strongly linked to aging,” Elkin said. “But we’re also seeing more cases due to rising rates of overweight and obesity in the U.S.”
She also pointed to another possible factor: declining rates of hysterectomies for benign conditions like fibroids and endometriosis. With more women retaining their uterus, the risk of developing cancer increases.
Unequal Outcomes
While uterine cancer has an overall 81% five-year survival rate, outcomes vary significantly based on the type and timing of diagnosis. The more aggressive subtypes — which are more commonly seen in Black women — carry a much lower survival rate, sometimes as low as 20%.
NCI data already show that Black women are twice as likely to die from uterine cancer as white women. The new study projects this disparity to widen — with Black women facing three times the mortality risk by 2050.
“These disparities are driven by delayed diagnoses, limited access to care, and poorer quality of treatment,” Elkin said.
Chemical Hair Products May Be a Risk Factor
Emerging research has linked the use of chemical hair relaxers — especially common among Black women — to an increased risk of uterine cancer. Nearly 95% of Black women under 45 have used chemical relaxers at some point, many of which contain toxins like formaldehyde, heavy metals, and hormone-disrupting chemicals.
While the use of such products has declined in recent years, past exposure may still pose a long-term risk.
No Routine Screening Test — Yet
Currently, there is no standard screening test for uterine cancer. Diagnosis typically happens after symptoms appear, such as abnormal vaginal bleeding, pelvic pain, or weight loss — often after menopause.
Elkin said her team’s model showed that introducing a reliable screening test for women around age 55 could significantly reduce future cases. “We’re not there yet, but tools like this help evaluate potential breakthroughs,” she said.
Hope in Future Treatments and Prevention
Despite the troubling projections, Elkin remains hopeful. She cited promising developments in immunotherapy and biomarker-based treatments, which could improve outcomes for more patients.
She also emphasized the importance of prevention, particularly through addressing obesity, one of the top risk factors.
“If we can improve access to the latest generation of weight loss medications and help more people achieve healthy weight, we could see a real impact on uterine cancer rates,” she said.Tools
