A documentary about First Lady Melania Trump directed by Brett Ratner is on pace to outperform early expectations and could land a top-five (and possibly top-three) opening-weekend finish—potentially edging out Jason Statham’s new release, according to current projections.
Why It Matters
Before release, some early forecasts for the documentary—covering 20 days in the first lady’s life leading up to President Donald Trump’s second inauguration—were bleak, with certain outlets suggesting it was headed for a disappointing debut.
The project has also drawn heavy scrutiny over Ratner’s involvement—after allegations of sexual harassment or misconduct by six women in 2017 led to his fallout in Hollywood—and over its cost. Amazon reportedly paid $40 million for the 104-minute documentary and spent an additional $35 million on marketing, bringing the total near $75 million and placing it among the most expensive documentaries ever produced.
The film was pulled from theaters in South Africa ahead of release, with the decision attributed to the “current climate.” Critics have also accused Amazon of seeking favor with Trump through the project. The New York Times called it “a blatant act of corporate corruption.” Trump responded by calling the Times “fake news” and describing the documentary as “a big deal actually.”
What To Know
Early Friday box office returns suggest Melania could generate $8 million or more in North America for its opening weekend, according to The Hollywood Reporter.
If those numbers hold, the documentary would be positioned to open at No. 3, trailing only Sam Raimi’s Send Help and Iron Lung, a feature debut from popular YouTuber Markiplier. That outcome would also put it ahead of Statham’s Shelter, which would be a notable win given the skepticism surrounding the documentary before release.
Initial Friday tracking showed Melania earning $2.9 million across 1,778 theaters, according to Box Office Mojo. The film is reportedly playing in a little over half the number of theaters showing Shelter, yet is grossing roughly 50 percent more.
Historically, the highest-grossing political documentary is Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11 at $222.4 million, surpassed only by Michael Jackson’s This Is It (2009) at $268 million and Grand Canyon: The Hidden Secrets, a 1984 documentary reported to have earned around $239 million.
That context suggests expectations for long-term performance should remain cautious. Still, the current start is notable: the opening weekend is being described as the strongest documentary debut in the past decade, surpassing the $5 million opening for the 2023 documentary After Death, according to ScreenRant.
Reviews could hamper the film’s staying power. Rotten Tomatoes has recorded 12 percent positive reviews (based on 17 published), while audience reception has been far more favorable, with a reported 99 percent positive audience score—indicating that word-of-mouth among supportive viewers could help the documentary sustain momentum even if profitability remains unlikely.
What People Are Saying
President Donald Trump at the film’s premiere: “I’m not involved. It was done with my wife. I think it’s a very important movie. It shows life in the White House. It’s a big deal, actually.”
An Amazon spokesperson previously told Newsweek: “We are excited to share this truly unique story with our millions of customers around the world.”
Melania Trump told Fox News in December: “For the first time, global audiences are invited into theaters to witness this pivotal chapter unfold—a private, unfiltered look as I navigate family, business, and philanthropy on my remarkable journey to becoming first lady of the United States of America.”
What Happens Next
Final box office figures are expected to be confirmed on Monday morning, with an updated estimate likely reported Sunday afternoon.
