Residents narrowly preferred former President Joe Biden’s immigration policies over those of President Donald Trump, but the gap was even smaller among younger adults, according to a new Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey of likely California voters.
The findings come as younger voters appear more divided than the broader statewide electorate and as Gov. Gavin Newsom’s approval rating slipped compared with December.
In the February 13–14 survey, 41% of respondents said they preferred Biden’s approach to immigration, while 38% favored Trump’s. Another 21% said they preferred neither.
The age breakdown suggests the contest is tighter among Californians under 50, a notable sign in a strongly Democratic state where voters have typically aligned with Democrats on immigration and rated Trump poorly. That shift could create an opening for Republican messaging and increase pressure on Newsom if immigration becomes more prominent in state politics.
Newsom and Trump have repeatedly clashed over immigration enforcement, including disputes over cooperation with federal authorities. California has one of the nation’s largest immigrant populations, and Los Angeles has been among the first major cities to see large-scale enforcement activity during Trump’s second term.
While the statewide electorate leaned toward Biden by three points, closer splits among younger adults stand out because even modest movement within large generational blocs can matter for elections in 2026 and beyond.
The same poll showed Newsom at 44% approval and 45% disapproval, reflecting weaker standing than in December. That creates added political risk if immigration debate intensifies at the same time voters remain focused on cost-of-living pressures.
The survey was conducted among 1,000 likely voters and reported a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Emerson noted that demographic subgroups, such as specific age brackets, come with wider uncertainty because of smaller sample sizes.
Among voters ages 30–39, results showed a near-even split, with 44% favoring Biden’s policies and about 34% favoring Trump’s. Among those ages 40–49, the balance shifted, with roughly 42% preferring Trump’s approach and about 39% preferring Biden’s.
Even so, immigration ranked well behind the economy and housing affordability as the issue voters most wanted state leaders to address. In the poll, 37% named the economy as the top problem facing California, 19% cited housing affordability, and 8% chose immigration.
Newsom’s standing remains fragile in that context. The survey recorded Trump at 32% approval and 62% disapproval among California voters.
Earlier polling has shown Californians resisting aggressive enforcement measures even when concern about immigration rises. An Emerson poll in August 2025 found 60% said mass deportations in California would be a bad idea, compared with 40% who supported them. Other national polling from that period also suggested voters were divided on using military or law-enforcement resources to support large-scale operations.
Political observers say the latest results reinforce a familiar pattern in California: immigration can be a high-visibility issue, but it usually competes with economic stress and housing costs for voter attention. Still, the narrower generational splits could become more meaningful if national debate escalates or if enforcement actions increase in major California cities.
Looking ahead, pollsters cautioned that it will take additional surveys to confirm whether younger voters are truly shifting or whether the closer numbers reflect the uncertainty that comes with subgroup sampling. With the state focused primarily on affordability, California leaders will be tested on whether they can respond to economic pressures while maintaining public confidence in their approach to immigration as the 2026 midterms approach.
