President Donald Trump used his record-length State of the Union address Tuesday to tout a revitalized economy, but his claims regarding gasoline prices have come under intense scrutiny from industry analysts and real-time fuel data. Trump asserted that gas is now “below $2.30 a gallon in most states,” a statement that contradicts current market data showing a national average closer to $3.00.
The President’s remarks come at a pivotal moment as the administration battles sagging approval ratings ahead of the 2026 midterms. While fuel prices have trended downward since his inauguration in January 2025, experts warn that the figures cited in the speech represent localized anomalies rather than the national reality.
The Data Gap: $2.30 vs. $2.98
In his address, President Trump claimed gas prices “reached a peak of over $6 a gallon in some states” under President Joe Biden before falling to current levels. However, data from AAA tells a different story. As of Thursday, the national average for a gallon of regular gas stood at $2.98.
State-level data further undermines the claim that “most states” are seeing prices below $2.30:
- Oklahoma: Recorded the lowest state average at $2.43 per gallon.
- Mississippi & Arkansas: Averaged between $2.45 and $2.55.
- California: Remains the nation’s most expensive market, averaging $4.64.
According to AAA, not a single state currently maintains an average price below the $2.30 threshold mentioned by the President.
‘Localized Price Wars’ Distort the Picture
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, noted that while the President mentioned seeing $1.85 per gallon in Iowa, such prices are “highly localized competitive events” rather than structural shifts in the economy.
“Only 8 out of roughly 150,000 gas stations nationwide are selling gasoline below $2 per gallon,” De Haan noted in his report, The Real State of Fuel Prices. He explained that these rare sub-$2.00 prices are often the result of “price wars” where stations sell at a loss to attract foot traffic, rather than a reflection of federal policy.
Geopolitical Tension and Seasonal Shifts
Industry experts warn that the downward trend the President praised may be short-lived. Several factors are expected to push prices higher in the coming weeks:
- Summer-Blend Transition: The EPA-mandated switch to summer-blend gasoline—which is more expensive to produce—is currently underway.
- Middle East Volatility: Rising military tensions between the U.S. and Iran have added a “geopolitical risk premium” to global crude oil markets.
- Refinery Maintenance: Planned outages in the Pacific Northwest and along the Olympic Pipeline are already causing price spikes on the West Coast.
Looking Ahead: The 2026 Fuel Outlook
GasBuddy’s 2026 forecast suggests that gas prices will continue to rise “without a doubt” through the spring. Analysts expect the national average to peak in April or May, with seasonal increases potentially adding 35 to 50 cents to current pump prices. While the President’s administration has seen a 6% overall drop in fuel costs since taking office, the “disaster” of high prices he attributed to his predecessor may return if global tensions remain high.
Fact-checking Trump’s State of the Union claims This video provides a detailed breakdown of the President’s 2026 State of the Union address, specifically verifying the accuracy of his economic and energy-related claims.
