KERRVILLE, Texas (AP) — As Christopher Flowers prepared to sleep on the night of July 3, nothing in the Guadalupe River weather forecast suggested imminent danger. But by dawn, his family was fleeing for their lives—awakened by popping electrical outlets and water already rising to their ankles.
“We barely made it into the attic,” said Flowers, 44, who had been staying with relatives along the river. “The phones started buzzing, but honestly, I can’t remember when in the chaos. What we really need is something like a tornado siren that tells people to get out now.”
Flowers and his family are among the survivors of a catastrophic flash flood that struck Texas Hill Country in the early hours of July 4. As of Saturday, authorities confirmed at least 43 deaths in Kerr County alone, with dozens still missing—including 27 girls from Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp where much of the devastation occurred.
Now, amid one of the largest search-and-rescue operations in Texas history, officials are facing growing criticism for the lack of early alerts and evacuations—especially for youth camps and communities lining the Guadalupe River.
Officials Under Scrutiny as Warnings Came Too Late
The National Weather Service (NWS) did issue a flood watch early Thursday afternoon (1:18 p.m.), forecasting 5 to 7 inches of rain. But the situation deteriorated rapidly overnight. By 4:03 a.m. Friday, the NWS escalated its messaging to a flash flood emergency—its most urgent alert—warning of catastrophic danger and urging immediate evacuation.
Still, for many, it was too late.
“It seems clear proactive evacuations might have saved lives,” said Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather, which relies on NWS data. “Flash Flood Warnings should be taken seriously no matter how much rain has already fallen.”
Despite the warnings, local leaders say they didn’t see it coming.
“We know the river rises. We just didn’t expect this,” said Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, the county’s top elected official.
Even Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice, who was jogging near the river around 4 a.m., said he noticed nothing alarming at the time. But by 5:20 a.m., floodwaters had surged so quickly that “we almost couldn’t get out of the park.”
No Local Siren System in Place
Judge Kelly acknowledged that Kerr County has no flood siren system in place—a tool many residents now say could have made a life-or-death difference. He said a proposal for such a system was explored around six or seven years ago but was abandoned due to high costs.
“We looked into it. The public pushed back on the expense,” Kelly said.
He also admitted that the county isn’t fully aware of what flood safety protocols, if any, were in place at camps like Camp Mystic. “We don’t know what alarm systems they had or where the kids were when it hit. That will all come out in time.”
Trump Administration Pledges Weather System Upgrades
U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, speaking in Kerrville on Saturday, said the federal government would prioritize upgrading the National Weather Service’s alert systems and forecasting technology—tools she claimed had been “neglected for too long.”
“Everyone wants more warning time,” Noem said. “That’s why we’re committed to improving the tools families rely on before disaster strikes.”
NWS Says Staff Was Ready, But Storm Moved Fast
According to Jason Runyen, a meteorologist with the NWS office in New Braunfels, the agency had extra forecasters on duty the night of the storm. Normally staffed with two forecasters, the office had up to five working through the night as the situation unfolded.
“This is standard protocol for major weather events,” said Runyen. “We brought in overtime and held staff over.”
But despite the staffing and alerts, many residents said the warnings failed to reach them in time—or weren’t forceful enough to trigger immediate evacuations.
A Tragedy That Raises Hard Questions
As families mourn and search efforts continue, frustration is rising over whether more lives could have been saved. Some officials have suggested that years of frequent but less-serious weather alerts have desensitized the public, leading many to ignore this one—until it was too late.
Now, with dozens of families still awaiting word on their missing loved ones, Texas Hill Country faces not only the aftermath of a devastating natural disaster, but tough questions about preparedness, communication, and whether more could have been done.
