President Donald Trump is doubling down on the issue that once propelled him to reelection in 2024: immigration. But as his administration ramps up enforcement efforts and showcases high-profile ICE raids, polling suggests the strategy may be backfiring — badly.
The administration has embraced aggressive tactics, including heavily publicized standoffs between federal immigration agents and protesters. One recent flashpoint was a raid on a licensed marijuana farm in Ventura County, California. And despite widespread backlash to the controversial “Alligator Alcatraz” detention facility in Florida, Trump and his allies continue to tout expanded deportation powers and a historic boost to ICE.
Vice President JD Vance even claimed that the new immigration provisions in a sweeping — and widely unpopular — Trump agenda bill made “everything else” in the legislation “immaterial.”
But that confidence is not reflected in public opinion.
A new Gallup survey conducted throughout June shows a sharp drop in support for Trump’s immigration agenda. Just 35% of Americans approve of how he’s handling the issue, while 62% disapprove — the worst numbers of his second term. Among independents, disapproval hits nearly 70%.
The data suggests that, far from strengthening his base or winning new converts, Trump’s immigration policies are alienating the broader public — including independents and even some Republicans.
Other recent polling backs this up:
- 59% of Americans, and 66% of independents, disapprove of Trump’s deportation policies, according to Quinnipiac.
- 56% overall, and 64% of independents, disapprove of ICE’s performance.
- A Marist/NPR/PBS poll found that 54% of Americans, including 1 in 5 Republicans, believe ICE has “gone too far.”
- A Pew poll showed 54% oppose ICE workplace raids, and 55% disapprove of building more detention centers for deportation processing.
- Pew also found 61% of Americans reject Trump’s policy of deporting undocumented immigrants to prisons in El Salvador — even in cases where mistakes occurred, such as the wrongful deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia.
Even support for deporting all undocumented immigrants — once a rallying cry for Trump’s base — has fallen sharply. Gallup reports support dropped from 47% in 2024 to just 38% now.
Meanwhile, sympathy for migrants has reached record highs: 79% of Americans now view immigration as a “good thing,” up from 64% a year ago.
The data highlights a growing disconnect between the administration’s hardline approach and the public’s shifting attitudes. While Trump may be trying to energize his core supporters, polls suggest that strategy is coming at the cost of broader support — particularly among independents, who are key in swing states.
Critics argue the administration misread the public’s appetite for mass deportations. Many voters may have supported tougher border enforcement in theory, but now balk at the reality of expanded raids, overburdened detention centers, and controversial policies that deport immigrants to dangerous or unfamiliar countries.
Trump appears to be gambling that the results — reduced illegal immigration and an energized MAGA base — will outweigh the backlash. But if current trends continue, immigration may become a political liability, not an advantage, heading into 2026.
As one Trump adviser reportedly put it, the release of a DOJ memo on Jeffrey Epstein was a “political nightmare.” The administration’s immigration strategy is starting to feel like one too.
