The 40th Farm Aid benefit concert is happening on Saturday, but the economic outlook for rural America is looking worse than it has in decades.
A survey released by the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) on Wednesday found that 46% of farmers believe the U.S. is on the edge of a farm crisis. Another 33% said they weren’t sure.
About two-thirds of farmers said they are more worried about money than they were a year ago. Many are postponing equipment purchases (58%), reducing fertilizer use (38%), or looking for extra income outside farming (22%).
“These findings point to a once-in-a-generation problem for the agricultural economy,” said NCGA Chief Economist Krista Swanson. “The survey shows this crisis could affect every part of the economy, as farmers spend less and cut budgets, which impacts their communities.”
The bad news matches other reports, like the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index that dropped 10 points in August to 125. A subindex measuring future expectations fell 16 points to 123, the lowest since last September.
Crop prices have fallen from their 2022 highs, while costs for things like seeds and fertilizer remain near record levels.
Last month, the NCGA asked Congress and the Trump administration to help farmers by increasing ethanol use and opening more foreign markets, warning of an “economic crisis hitting rural America.”
Exports have suffered because of President Donald Trump’s trade war, which has hurt some crops more than others.
The American Soybean Association sent a letter to Trump last month, warning that “U.S. soybean farmers are standing at a trade and financial precipice.” With harvest season coming, China hasn’t bought any U.S. soybeans for the months ahead, even though it is usually the top buyer.
The group said that U.S. soybean farmers cannot survive a long trade fight with China and asked Trump to focus on soybeans in negotiations with Beijing.
But on Friday, Trump didn’t mention agricultural exports after a call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Prices for soybeans, corn, and wheat all fell yesterday.
U.S. farmers will still get some government help. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July includes about $66 billion for agriculture. Most of it, around $59 billion, is for farm safety-net programs, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.
Trump is also considering a bailout program for farmers using tariff income, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told the Financial Times.
American Soybean Association CEO Stephen Censky told Farm Journal’s AgWeb on Friday that government assistance only helps for a short time. Payments can lead to higher rents and costs, which limit overall relief.
“It’s tough, and I can hear it in the stress in our members’ voices. Our members and our board of directors are really concerned right now,” Censky, who served as deputy agriculture secretary in Trump’s first term, said. “Some say if things don’t turn around—if markets don’t recover or if we don’t get economic help—this could be their last year in farming. That’s pretty scary.”
