Concord — As former U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva exchange barbs over new tariffs, the man caught in the middle—Jair Bolsonaro—has offered investors little clarity and even less direction, deepening political uncertainty in Brazil.
Bolsonaro, the former Brazilian president and Lula’s chief political rival, is currently barred from running for office due to ongoing legal battles. Yet he remains a central figure in the latest tensions, with Trump imposing a 50% tariff on Brazilian steel and aluminum imports—reportedly in retaliation for what he calls the “witch hunt” against Bolsonaro, whom he compared to himself.
While Trump’s fiery defense may have appeared to boost Bolsonaro and his MAGA-style base, it has in fact complicated matters. Rather than uniting the Brazilian right, the move has exposed fractures and opened space for a new crop of populist contenders to challenge Lula, all while raising alarms over perceived U.S. interference in Brazil’s democracy.
Bolsonaro’s own reaction came more than a day after Trump’s statement. He echoed his usual rhetoric, blaming the tariffs on what he called Brazil’s retreat from freedom and rule of law under Lula. “This would never have happened in my government,” he insisted, adding that the legal efforts against him were part of a wider campaign against millions of Brazilians.
In the meantime, Bolsonaro remained largely quiet, reposting content from allies but saying little of his own—except for two posts hinting at his potential successors.
One featured his son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, a federal lawmaker who moved to the U.S. earlier this year to lobby on his father’s behalf. Eduardo, who shares deep ties with Trump’s inner circle, publicly praised the tariffs shortly before his 41st birthday. Jair Bolsonaro marked the occasion with a message lamenting that they were apart due to “persecution” from Brazil’s judicial system.
The other likely heir: São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, a former Bolsonaro cabinet member now viewed by business leaders as a potential challenger to Lula in 2026. Though Freitas denies plans to run, he’s taken steps to win Bolsonaro’s endorsement—essential to securing the support of Brazil’s conservative base.
Initially, Freitas blamed Lula for the tariffs. But with backlash growing among Brazilian businesses, he quickly shifted, calling for negotiations to prevent economic fallout. Later, he appeared in a video dining with Bolsonaro at a traditional barbecue restaurant in Brasília—offering a public display of unity. “Always great to be by your side, president!” he wrote.
Despite the show of strength, the right remains fractured and directionless in the face of a reinvigorated Lula, who has seized the moment to strengthen his domestic standing. His approval ratings have hovered below 50%, but Trump’s intervention has given him new political ammunition.
“The issue now isn’t who gets blamed,” said Flávio Bolsonaro, another of the former president’s sons, in an interview with CNN Brasil. Instead, he renewed calls for amnesty for those convicted in connection with the January 8, 2023, insurrection in Brasília, when Bolsonaro supporters stormed government buildings shortly after Lula’s inauguration.
Other Bolsonaro allies sought to deflect blame onto Lula—or at least avoid direct confrontation with Trump’s tariff policy. “We’ll eat popcorn and watch for the next 21 days,” said Sostenes Cavalcante, Bolsonaro’s party leader in the lower house, referencing the August 1 date when the tariffs kick in. “Let’s wait for Lula to solve the problem.”
But Lula’s government has little interest in negotiating on Trump’s terms. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad dismissed the tariffs as politically motivated, noting that Brazil runs a trade deficit with the U.S.—buying more than it sells—and that there’s no economic justification for the move.
Moreover, Brazil has no legal power to influence the court cases against Bolsonaro, which remain in the hands of the judiciary.
Instead, Lula’s team is seeking to mitigate the economic damage by strengthening trade ties with other countries, including Indonesia, Canada, and Japan, through Mercosur, South America’s trade bloc. Many of those talks were already underway, as Lula looks to reduce Brazil’s dependence on the U.S. and China following the earlier trade standoff triggered by Trump.
Behind the scenes, officials say the government views the situation as a political trap set by Trump and Bolsonaro—one they have no intention of walking into. Ultimately, Haddad believes the economic consequences will fall hardest on Bolsonaro’s own base.
“Eventually,” he said, “even the far right will have to admit it shot itself in the foot.”
