Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says many working Americans can expect “very large refunds” next year, estimating that typical households could receive about $1,000 to $2,000 back at tax time.
He said those refunds will stem from tax cuts included in President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Why It Matters
If the projections hold, the refunds Bessent described would give households a noticeable boost in disposable income in the first few months of 2026. For many families, it could be one of the most concrete, easy-to-see effects of Trump’s signature tax package, showing up as a lump sum during tax season and then as slightly higher take-home pay after workers adjust their withholding.
What To Know
Bessent said working Americans should see these refunds in the first quarter of 2026.
“I think we’re going to see $100-$150 billion of refunds, which could be between $1,000, $2,000 per household,” he told a reporter in Pennsylvania on Wednesday.
The treasury secretary highlighted several features of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed in July, including:
- Auto-deductibility
- No tax on tips
- No tax on overtime
- No tax on Social Security
Because most workers have not yet updated their tax withholding to reflect these changes, Bessent said, many are effectively overpaying during the year and will be due sizable refunds when they file.
Once households receive those refunds, they are expected to adjust their withholding so that less tax is taken out of each paycheck going forward. At that point, Bessent said, workers would experience what he called a “real increase” in their wages.
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett echoed that outlook in an interview with CNBC on Monday, saying Americans are likely to see an extra $1,600 to $2,000 next year, much of it arriving as tax refunds early in the year.
What People Are Saying
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a reporter on Wednesday:
“The bill was passed in July, working Americans didn’t change their withholding, so they’re going to be getting very large refunds in the first quarter. So I think we’re going to see $100-$150 billion of refunds, which could be between $1,000, $2,000 per household. Then, they’ll change their withholding, and they’ll get a real increase in their wages.”
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told CNBC on Monday:
“We’re going into next year, where the typical person who’s got no tax on tips, no tax on overtime is probably going to see an extra $1,600 to $2,000. A lot of that will come as tax refunds in the beginning of the year.”
What Happens Next
According to Bessent, Americans should look for these refunds to arrive in the first quarter of 2026, with ongoing changes to withholding expected to raise take-home pay throughout the year.
