A new analysis from the JPMorganChase Institute estimates that President Donald Trump’s latest round of tariffs could directly cost a key segment of U.S. employers $82.3 billion — a burden companies may try to absorb through price increases, staff reductions, hiring freezes, or slimmer profit margins.
The study focuses on businesses with annual revenues between $10 million and $1 billion, a group that employs roughly one-third of the U.S. private-sector workforce. These companies are particularly reliant on imports from countries like China, India, and Thailand, with wholesale and retail sectors standing out as especially exposed.
The report challenges Trump’s repeated claims that foreign exporters would bear the brunt of the tariffs. Instead, it shows that American companies are more likely to feel the pinch. Though the tariffs haven’t triggered broad inflation so far, large retailers like Amazon, Costco, Walmart, and Williams-Sonoma have temporarily shielded themselves by stockpiling goods before the tariffs take effect.
Trump has set a July 9 deadline to finalize tariff rates on imports from dozens of countries. That date follows a volatile reaction from financial markets after Trump’s April announcement, which led him to implement a 90-day negotiating period during which most imports were hit with a 10% tariff. Higher rates have been reserved for specific sectors, including 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, and steeper penalties for imports from China, Mexico, and Canada.
Larger Economic Impact
Had the original April 2 tariffs remained in place, the estimated direct cost for companies in the analysis would have skyrocketed to $187.6 billion. Under the current plan, the $82.3 billion burden amounts to an average of $2,080 per employee, or 3.1% of the average annual payroll, even for businesses that don’t rely heavily on imports.
While some domestic manufacturers might benefit by replacing foreign suppliers, the report notes that wholesalers and retailers, who often operate on razor-thin margins, would be hard-pressed to absorb the added costs without raising prices.
Rising Inflation Risks
The prospect of more inflation looms. A Goldman Sachs report estimates that businesses may pass along 60% of the tariff costs to consumers. Similarly, a survey by the Atlanta Federal Reserve found that businesses expect to shift about half the costs of tariffs (whether 10% or 25%) to consumers without significantly reducing demand.
Only the U.K. has reached a trade framework agreement with the Trump administration so far. India and Vietnam are reportedly close, but many other countries remain at odds with the U.S. As the deadline approaches, negotiations with Canada were briefly halted, then resumed after Canada withdrew a proposed digital services tax. On Monday, Trump also threatened new tariffs on Japan unless it increased purchases of U.S. rice.
White House Defends Strategy
Despite concerns from economists and business leaders, the administration remains optimistic. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox & Friends that career officials across government agencies were “amazed” by the scope of the trade agreements being negotiated.
“People who have been at Treasury, at Commerce, at USTR for 20 years are saying these are deals like they’ve never seen before,” Bessent said.
The administration plans to outline the shape of potential trade deals next week, though its current legislative priority is the new GOP tax cuts package, which passed the Senate Tuesday. Trump has given Congress a Friday deadline to finalize the multitrillion-dollar tax bill, which he hopes to help fund through tariff revenue.
