New UNF survey shows tight race between Florida’s first lady and Trump-backed congressman ahead of 2026 Republican primary
Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis leads Representative Byron Donalds by a narrow margin in a new University of North Florida (UNF) poll tracking the state’s 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary.
The poll, conducted by UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab between July 14 and July 22, surveyed 797 registered Republican voters and found 32% support for DeSantis, compared to 29% for Donalds—a virtual tie within the poll’s ±3.9% margin of error.
Donalds’ campaign responded to the poll results with confidence. Ryan Smith, his chief strategist, told Newsweek, “No matter the field, Byron Donalds will be Florida’s next Governor because he is the only proven conservative endorsed by President Trump.”
Why It Matters
The 2026 Florida governor’s race is drawing national attention as Governor Ron DeSantis is term-limited and cannot seek reelection. While Byron Donalds has already launched his campaign and secured the backing of former President Donald Trump, Casey DeSantis has not formally declared her candidacy—but her strong polling suggests she would be a formidable contender if she does.
Poll Breakdown
- Casey DeSantis: 32%
- Byron Donalds: 29%
- Matt Gaetz: 8%
- Francis Suarez: 2%
- Wilton Simpson: 1%
- Undecided: 18%
While DeSantis leads overall, Donalds enjoys a significant edge among voters who participated in the 2024 GOP primary, with 37% support to DeSantis’ 22%.
Shifting Momentum
Past surveys highlight a race in flux:
- A St. Pete Polls survey (July 8–10) showed Donalds ahead 35% to 27% over DeSantis.
- A James Madison Institute poll in May had DeSantis narrowly leading 29% to 28%. However, when respondents were told Trump endorsed Donalds, support for him jumped to 44%, while DeSantis dropped to 25%.
Democratic and Independent Field
On the Democratic side, former Republican David Jolly has formally launched a campaign. Meanwhile, former state Senate Democratic leader Jason Pizzo is entering the race as an independent.
What People Are Saying
UNF political science professor Dr. Michael Binder noted that DeSantis was an early frontrunner in 2023, polling at 22% to Donalds’ 9%, but her advantage has now vanished.
“As we get closer to August 2026, DeSantis’s lead has all but disappeared, now inside the margin of error,” Binder wrote in the poll memo.
Byron Donalds, speaking on CBN News, emphasized his growing support:
“I have the support of President Trump, Senator Rick Scott, most of the Republican congressional delegation—and we’re picking up steam every single day.”
When asked about a potential run, Casey DeSantis told the Florida Phoenix: “We’ll see.”
What’s Next
The Republican primary is set for August 18, 2026. With Donalds already in the race and DeSantis potentially joining, the contest is expected to intensify over the coming year.
As of now, the Cook Political Report classifies the race as Safe Republican, but the GOP primary may prove to be one of the most competitive in the country.
