Democrats are throwing significant weight behind a Tennessee special election next month, treating it as a final test of their electoral momentum heading into 2026 after a series of November victories.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin have recently campaigned for Democrat Aftyn Behn, a state representative facing Republican Matt Van Epps in the race to replace former Rep. Mark Green in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. Several outside Democratic organizations have also invested heavily in the contest.
Van Epps, a former commissioner of the Tennessee Department of General Services, is backed by President Trump, who held a tele-rally for him earlier this month. Pro-Trump groups, including MAGA Inc, are also spending in the race.
Democrats concede it will be difficult to flip the deep-red seat, but argue that even cutting the Republican margin to around 10 points would signal strength.
“This is our first special election in nearly 40 years in Tennessee, so this is really a once-in-a-generation opportunity for us,” said Dakota Galban, chair of the Davidson County Democratic Party, which includes Nashville.
“They drew these new lines intentionally to rob Democrats of our voice in Congress, so I think that especially motivates Nashville voters,” Galban added, pointing out that the current House map splits Nashville into three districts.
Early voting is underway in the 7th District, which runs from Tennessee’s northern border with Kentucky to its southern border with Alabama and includes western and northern sections of Nashville.
Green resigned in July to take a job in the private sector, triggering the special election.
Trump carried the district by 22 points in November, and Green defeated former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry (D) by 21 points. Van Epps remains the favorite heading into the Dec. 2 election, but Democrats say there are reasons to believe they can outperform past results.
They cite strong showings earlier this month in New Jersey and Virginia, where Democrats Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger exceeded expectations and won their gubernatorial races by double digits. Those victories followed a series of smaller special-election wins for Democrats throughout the year.
Democrats also emphasize that the current district includes parts of Nashville, unlike in 2018, when the seat was last open and the 7th District did not encompass the city at all.
Adding to their confidence is the involvement of high-profile surrogates like Harris, which has drawn more national attention to the race.
“There’s a lot of very cautious optimism,” said Justin Kanew, who ran against Green in 2018 under the old lines and now runs the progressive news site The Tennessee Holler.
“I think everybody understands the reality of the landscape here, but there are enough reasons to think that if there ever was a time for a miracle, now would be the time,” he said.
Behn has centered her campaign on the slogan “feed kids, fix roads and fund hospitals.” In her ads, she has attacked Republicans over Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” rebranding it as the GOP’s “big, bulls— bill” and criticizing it for cutting Medicaid while granting larger tax breaks to wealthy Americans.
In another ad, Behn criticizes Republicans for their handling of documents related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The spot also highlights how Tennesseans face a “rough ride” due to health care cuts and Trump’s tariffs, showing people being thrown from a mechanical bull.
Earlier this week, Republicans in Congress passed legislation — later signed into law by Trump — requiring the Justice Department to release unclassified documents about Epstein, after initial pushback from the administration.
Democrats have hammered Van Epps over the issue, noting that he initially declined to say whether he supported releasing the files and instead backed House GOP leaders as the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee issued subpoenas for the documents.
Hours before the House voted overwhelmingly to release the files, Van Epps posted on X that he supported their release, writing, “As I’ve said from the beginning, I support full transparency — I would vote to release the Epstein files, no hesitation.”
“I’m with President Trump 100%. I also support continued investigation by the oversight committee with full subpoena power. Tennesseans want and deserve the truth!” he added.
Van Epps has also focused on affordability in his campaign ads, pledging to “bring down prices, create good-paying jobs and lower health care costs for working families,” while highlighting his military experience as a veteran who has served on nine combat tours.
Republican groups such as Club for Growth Action have attempted to brand Behn as a “woke liberal,” citing a selfie-style video in which she discussed following state troopers and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials. They’ve also attacked her over comments she made in a 2020 podcast in which she said she hated Nashville.
“NO, I DO NOT HATE THE CITY I REPRESENT,” Behn wrote on X, adding several laughing emojis. “The national GOP’s new attack? That I ‘hate Nashville.’ I’ve cried in the Country Music Hall of Fame no less than 10 times. They’re panicking because we’re close to winning. Eyes on the prize, y’all. Let’s go.”
Republicans concede that a special election in a typically safe district requires extra spending, but they remain confident about Van Epps’s chances.
“It’s a special election so turnout is going to be very low. Dems are angry and Republicans are satisfied with what’s going on, so turnout is a challenge, but the Democrats nominated very poorly,” GOP strategist Josh Thomas said in an email to The Hill.
Republicans also brush off the idea that Democrats could frame a relatively narrow defeat as a moral victory.
“There’s only one scorecard: You win or lose,” said Republican strategist and former Tennessee GOP chair Chip Saltsman.
“The only job the Republicans have got to do is get one more vote than Democrats, and they’re gonna get a lot more than one,” he added.
Some Democrats are similarly realistic about their uphill climb.
Lisa Quigley, former chief of staff to ex-Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.), said that while Tennessee Democrats have improved their vote share from Nashville in recent cycles, turnout in Davidson County still isn’t where it needs to be. As of Thursday, data showed Davidson County making up about 25 percent of the total vote.
“If it was more like 50 percent of the vote, like, we’d be winning. And that’s what we’re not seeing,” Quigley said.
Democrats also point to structural barriers that make it harder to mobilize their voters. Tennessee has one of the lowest voter participation rates in the country, and party members say the state’s 30-day voter registration deadline and strict absentee ballot rules create obstacles. At the same time, Tennessee’s early voting period begins earlier than in some other states, starting 20 days before Election Day.
Still, Democrats argue that the race can send a broader message as they work to expand their reach statewide ahead of next year’s midterms.
“I want people in Nashville to understand that this sets the tone for how we treat all of our people in Tennessee,” said Carol Abney, a member of both the state Democratic Party and the Democratic National Committee.
“How well we do in this race will show that Tennessee’s worth fighting for,” she said.
