A new Emerson College poll suggests Ohio’s 2026 contests for governor and a U.S. Senate seat are suddenly far more competitive, with Democrats and Republicans now separated by only a few points—well within the survey’s margin of error.
Republicans currently control the governor’s office and both of Ohio’s U.S. Senate seats. One of those seats was previously held by Vice President JD Vance before he left the Senate to join the White House in the second Trump administration. With open and special elections ahead, the latest numbers indicate Democrats are closing in.
Jai Chabria, chief strategist for the Vivek for Ohio campaign, told Newsweek: “Vivek will have raised more than $20 million by December 31. He has a statewide grassroots infrastructure and has visited all 88 counties. He sells out every venue he goes to. You should ask Governor Richard Cordray and Senator Tim Ryan about how public polls helped them win.”
Why It Matters
Ohio’s governor’s race is set for November 2026 as Gov. Mike DeWine reaches the end of his term-limited time in office. Historically, Ohio has leaned heavily Republican in statewide executive elections, with only one Democrat elected among the last six governors dating back to 1991. A tightening race could signal a more volatile political environment for the GOP heading into 2026.
The Senate contest also carries national implications. Ohio’s special election in November 2026 will determine who holds the seat for the remainder of Vance’s term, which runs through 2029. Jon Husted was appointed to replace Vance after Vance became vice president following Donald Trump’s win last November.
What To Know
In the governor’s contest, the Emerson poll found 46% support for Democrat Amy Acton and 45% for Republican Vivek Ramaswamy.
That marks a notable shift from Emerson’s August polling, when Acton trailed more clearly at 39% to Ramaswamy’s 49%. Acton’s support is up seven points compared with that earlier survey.
In the Senate race, 49% of respondents backed Republican incumbent Jon Husted, while 46% supported Democrat Sherrod Brown, a former U.S. senator. Compared with the August Emerson poll, Husted is down one point and Brown is up two.
The Emerson survey questioned 850 registered voters between December 6 and 8 and reported a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.
The results follow an October poll from Bowling Green State University’s Democracy and Public Policy Network showing a similarly close contest, with Brown at 49% and Husted at 48%.
The new polling also arrives alongside a recent Morning Consult measure of President Donald Trump’s standing in Ohio, which showed his approval essentially even: 48% approving and 49% disapproving, for a net -1 rating. Morning Consult had previously reported Trump in positive territory in the state.
What People Are Saying
Ramaswamy said at his campaign launch rally at CTL Aerospace in February: “President Trump is reviving our conviction in America, we require a leader here at home who will revive our conviction in Ohio.”
He added: “We will lead Ohio to be the top state in the country where we embrace capitalism and meritocracy instead of apologizing for it, we will lead Ohio to be the top state in the country that takes a hatchet to red tape over regulation and bureaucracy.
“I will lead Ohio to be the top state in the country where patriots across America actually flock to instead of Florida and Texas, I will lead Ohio to be the state of excellence in America.”
Acton campaign manager Philip Stein said in an August press release: “Dr. Acton is the candidate to beat corporate billionaire Vivek Ramaswamy in 2026, and Ohio voters are fired up about her candidacy. Every day on the campaign trail, Amy hears from Ohioans impacted by high costs and health care cuts who are ready for change. They know that someone who rose from a tough childhood in Youngstown to be a doctor, saving lives in Ohio and beyond, understands what they are going through and will fight for them. And that’s exactly what Dr. Acton will do as governor.”
What Happens Next
Ohio voters will decide both races in November 2026.
