Democrats notched their biggest Senate recruiting victory of the 2026 cycle this week with former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper announcing a bid for the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. The high-profile candidacy gives Democrats a key opportunity to flip a GOP-held seat—and now they’re hoping to replicate that success in other battlegrounds.
To retake the Senate majority, Democrats must flip at least four Republican seats while defending several of their own in competitive states. The early landscape has been a mix of promise and challenge, with uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s influence on GOP primaries and a murky field of both incumbent and potential contenders.
Democrats are eyeing opportunities in traditionally red states like Texas and Iowa, as well as more purple terrain in Maine. But they’re also bracing for tough battles to hold seats in Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Georgia—where Sen. Jon Ossoff is up for reelection.
In New Hampshire, Democrats scored another strong recruit with Rep. Chris Pappas entering the Senate race, while Republicans took a hit with former Gov. Chris Sununu declining to run. Georgia Democrats were relieved when GOP Gov. Brian Kemp also passed on a Senate bid. And in Maine, Democrats hope Gov. Janet Mills will challenge longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins.
Still, the party is working behind the scenes to avoid messy primary fights that could jeopardize their chances next November.
“Governor Cooper is a formidable candidate who will flip North Carolina’s Senate seat, and his announcement is the latest sign that the Republican majority is in serious danger,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and campaign chief Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand said in a statement to CNN.
Turmoil in Michigan
The race causing the most anxiety for Democrats is Michigan, where Sen. Elissa Slotkin’s departure has triggered a wide-open contest. Republicans are coalescing around former Rep. Mike Rogers, the 2024 nominee who lost to Slotkin last cycle but now enjoys a clearer primary path and stronger early fundraising.
Rogers recently gained momentum after Rep. Bill Huizenga opted out of the race—reportedly at the urging of President Trump and other Republicans who want him to hold his western Michigan House seat.
Meanwhile, Democrats face a potentially bruising primary between Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and progressive activist Abdul El-Sayed. Schumer’s team is said to be quietly backing Stevens, who’s already been endorsed by former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and is receiving behind-the-scenes support from Gillibrand.
Yet El-Sayed, backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, has emerged as a surprise fundraising powerhouse and is calling on the party to take a more combative stance against Trump. Democrats hope to avoid a drawn-out battle and unite behind a nominee before the August 2026 primary, but tensions persist—especially between Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and some members of the congressional delegation.
Further complicating the political map: Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan’s decision to run for governor as an independent, a move that could fracture the Democratic coalition in statewide contests.
“I don’t think people understand how dysfunctional the Senate race is,” one Michigan Democrat told CNN. “If we don’t pull people together, we are screwed.”
Texas: A Brewing Republican Showdown
Texas remains a long shot for Democrats, but GOP infighting could open a door. Sen. John Cornyn is fending off a MAGA-backed primary challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton, whose campaign has been rocked by personal and legal turmoil—including a divorce filing from his wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton.
Cornyn allies are pouring resources into the race to fend off Paxton. Meanwhile, Rep. Wesley Hunt is exploring a bid and testing the waters with early ad buys. Rep. Ronny Jackson, a Trump loyalist, is considered unlikely to run, as he reportedly has his eye on a future role in a potential Trump administration.
Democrats, for their part, may also face a contentious primary. Former Rep. Colin Allred, who outperformed Kamala Harris in several Texas counties during the 2024 cycle, is already in the race. And Beto O’Rourke—who lost high-profile races in 2018 and 2022—is back on the road holding town halls and weighing another run.
Some Democratic leaders are quietly urging other potential Senate hopefuls to pursue alternative races. Sources say Rep. Joaquin Castro is being encouraged to run for state attorney general, while state Rep. James Talarico is being pushed toward a gubernatorial bid. Neither has ruled anything out.
“I’m not taking anything off the table right now,” Talarico told CNN. “After the special session, I’ll consider how I can best serve—including possibly in the U.S. Senate.”
O’Rourke has kept himself in the mix by hosting statewide events that feature top Democrats like Castro, Talarico, and Rep. Jasmine Crockett—giving Texas Democrats plenty of options, and headaches, as 2026 approaches.
Uncertainty in Ohio and Iowa
In Ohio, Democrats are waiting to see if former Sen. Sherrod Brown will attempt a political comeback to challenge appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who took over Vice President JD Vance’s seat earlier this year. Brown lost reelection in 2024 but remains popular in parts of the state.
Iowa also remains in flux. Speculation continues that Sen. Joni Ernst may retire, particularly after a controversial comment dismissing concerns over Medicaid cuts. Ernst has promised a decision this fall.
“There’s always chatter,” Ernst told local media. “But I have a lot left to do in the Senate.”
If Ernst exits, Republicans are expected to back Rep. Ashley Hinson, while Democrats have a growing field that includes state Rep. J.D. Scholten, state Sen. Zach Wahls, and business leader Nathan Sage.
One More Wild Card: Alaska
Democrats are keeping a close eye on Alaska, where GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan is up for reelection. Former Rep. Mary Peltola, who lost her seat in 2024, is widely seen as the party’s best shot at making the race competitive, but she has not yet made a decision.
As the 2026 cycle ramps up, Democrats know their path to the majority depends not just on finding strong candidates—but avoiding internal fights that could sink their chances before voters even head to the polls.
