A new national survey suggests Democrats hold a commanding advantage on the congressional “generic ballot” — the question that asks voters which party’s candidate they would support if elections were held today.
The PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, conducted November 10–13, found 55% of voters would back a Democratic candidate for Congress, while 41% would choose a Republican. That 14-point gap marks the Democrats’ largest lead in this poll since November 2017.
The finding echoes the political climate leading into the 2018 midterms, when Democrats flipped more than 40 House seats during President Donald Trump’s first term.
Why it matters
With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, Democrats are aiming to reclaim control of both the House and Senate. This poll indicates they’re starting from a strong position.
It also points to rising frustration with Republicans following a period of political turbulence, which could make next year’s elections more difficult for the GOP.
What to know
The survey shows Democrats carrying especially strong support among independents. About 61% of independent voters said they would vote for a Democrat, compared with 28% who said they would pick a Republican — a striking 33-point advantage.
Respondents also viewed Democrats as more open to different viewpoints. When asked about political conversations, 60% of Americans said Republicans generally come across as closed-minded, while 39% described them as open-minded. Democrats were seen more evenly, but in a better light overall: 51% said Democrats tend to be open-minded, and 48% said they are closed-minded.
Independents reported an even sharper contrast. Nearly 69% said Republicans seem mostly closed-minded in political discussions, while 53% said Democrats are more open-minded.
Trump’s standing in the poll has also slipped. His approval rating sits at 39% approve to 56% disapprove, a net rating of -17 points — down from -12 points in September.
The polling comes after several high-profile Democratic wins in recent elections. In New York City, Zohran Mamdani defeated former Governor Andrew Cuomo to become the city’s first Muslim mayor earlier this month. Democrats also notched gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey, where Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill won statewide races. In California, voters approved Proposition 50, a redistricting plan backed by Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom.
Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of The Cook Political Report, said the recent wins have had “consequences in invigorating Democrats” ahead of the midterms. Meanwhile, former White House strategist Steve Bannon warned on X that Republicans should take the pattern seriously, writing that the “warning signs are flashing.”
What happens next
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled for November 2026, and both parties are expected to intensify campaigning over the coming months.
