A new national survey suggests Democrats have opened up a sizable advantage on the 2026 congressional battlefield. If the midterms were held today, 55% of voters say they would back a Democratic candidate for Congress, while 41% would choose a Republican, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll conducted November 10–13.
That 14-point margin is the Democrats’ widest since late 2017. The last time the party posted numbers like this heading into a midterm cycle was during Donald Trump’s first term, when Democrats flipped more than 40 House seats in 2018.
The poll points to a favorable environment for Democrats as they try to regain control of both chambers next year. It also reflects growing frustration with Republicans following months of political turbulence, a dynamic that could complicate the GOP’s path in 2026.
Independents, often the decisive bloc in midterms, are leaning sharply Democratic in this snapshot. Among these voters, 61% say they would support Democrats versus 28% for Republicans, giving Democrats a striking 33-point edge.
The survey also highlights a perception gap between the parties on openness to differing views. Overall, 60% of Americans say Republicans come across as mostly closed-minded in political discussions, while 39% see them as open-minded. Democrats fare better: 51% describe them as generally open-minded, compared with 48% who say the opposite. That divide is even larger among independents, nearly 69% of whom view Republicans as closed-minded, while 53% say Democrats are more open in political conversations.
Trump’s standing remains a headwind for his party in the poll. His approval rating sits at 39% approve to 56% disapprove, a net -17 — down from a net -12 in September.
The results come in the wake of several recent Democratic wins across the country. In New York City, Zohran Mamdani defeated former Governor Andrew Cuomo to become the city’s first Muslim mayor. Democrats also captured gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey, with Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill winning their races. In California, voters approved Proposition 50, a redistricting plan driven by Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom.
Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of The Cook Political Report, said the string of wins has helped energize Democrats ahead of the midterms, while Republican setbacks have stirred alarm within the party. Former Trump strategist Steve Bannon echoed that concern online, warning that the “midterms start tonight” and that caution signs are already showing.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled for November 2026.
