U.S. President Donald Trump is confronting unfavorable polling less than a year before the November 2026 midterm elections.
A new survey from the Bullfinch Group suggests that, if the elections were held today, more Americans would choose Democratic candidates over Republicans — and that a majority of respondents are unhappy with Trump’s performance in office.
Although there are still 11 months to go before voters cast their ballots, a persistent trend like this could spell trouble for the GOP.
William Hall, an adjunct professor of political science and business at Webster University in St. Louis, Missouri, told Newsweek:
“The prospects for a highly significant amount of positive change and a turn around to occur, in the increasingly and consistent negative trend of disapproval ratings for both President Trump and by association, the GOP, is beginning to look at this point, more and more daunting. The outcome of the 2026 midterm elections, given this current negative trend in approval, may very well depend, ultimately, on the ability of President Trump and the GOP, to be able to shift gears, change course and develop and implement a political strategy reflecting a much more effective approach to both public policies and governing, that is more in tune with the voters.”
Why It Matters
Trump’s name won’t appear on the midterm ballot, but the results will still be widely interpreted as a verdict on his presidency. A weak Republican showing would not only damage his political standing, it could also limit what his administration can accomplish.
The GOP has already taken hits at the ballot box this year. In the November 4 elections, Republicans struggled in several key races, including the New York City mayoral contest, where Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani defeated independent Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa.
Meanwhile, Republicans currently hold only a narrow 219–214 edge in the House of Representatives. That margin will shrink further when Georgia Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene resigns in January. Losing even a small number of seats in 2026 could make it significantly harder for the party to advance its agenda for the remainder of Trump’s term.
What To Know
The Bullfinch Group poll found:
- 37% of respondents said they would back a Democratic candidate if the 2026 midterm elections were held today.
- 32% said they would support the Republican candidate.
The survey also showed that 54% of respondents disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president.
The poll, conducted among 1,200 adults between November 21 and 25, carries a margin of error of +/- 2.83 percentage points.
These findings come on top of other worrisome indicators for the White House:
- A Fox News poll last month reported that 76% of voters have a negative view of the economy. That figure is higher than at the end of former President Joe Biden’s term in 2024, when Fox News polling showed 70% viewed the economy negatively.
- A recent The Economist/YouGov survey put Trump’s approval rating at 39%, with 58% disapproving — a net approval rating of -19 points, his lowest since returning to office in January.
Not all the data is bleak for Trump. A new I&I/TIPP poll shows a more favorable picture:
- Trump’s net approval rating there is -3 points, with 44% approving and 47% disapproving.
- That marks an improvement from the previous month, when 41% approved and 49% disapproved, for a net rating of -8 points.
What People Are Saying
Trump has publicly rejected the negative numbers, dismissing them as biased.
On his social media platform Truth Social in November, he wrote:
“So many Fake Polls are being shown by the Radical Left Media, all slanted heavily toward Democrats and Far Left Wingers…Fake News will never change, they are evil and corrupt but, as I look around my beautiful surroundings, I say to myself, ‘Oh, look, I’m sitting in the Oval Office!'”
What Happens Next
The midterm elections are scheduled for November 2026. Whether Democrats can capitalize on the current polling edge — or Republicans manage a rebound — will depend on how voters ultimately judge Trump’s leadership and the GOP’s performance in the coming months.
