Epstein File Release Fuels Spike in Betting Odds on Another Trump Impeachment
The odds that President Donald Trump will face impeachment again have climbed sharply following the release of thousands of pages of documents tied to disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein.
On Wednesday, lawmakers made public more than 20,000 pages of material related to Epstein, a convicted sex offender who died by suicide in a New York jail in 2019 while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges. Trump’s name appears in some of those documents.
In the wake of the release, online prediction platform Polymarket—where users wager on the likelihood of real-world events—saw the implied probability that Trump will be impeached by the end of 2026 jump from about 5 percent on Wednesday to roughly 15 percent by Friday.
The White House swiftly pushed back on any suggestion that the documents pose a political threat. Spokeswoman Abigail Jackson told Newsweek that the latest disclosures “prove literally nothing,” accusing Democrats and the media of seizing on a “hoax” to divert attention from what she framed as a decisive Trump victory in the recent government shutdown fight. She added that the administration remains focused on fulfilling Trump’s campaign promises, including addressing “Biden-era price hikes.”
Why It Matters
Epstein-related records continue to generate political headaches for the Trump administration, as lawmakers in both parties demand more transparency and broader disclosure of the government’s files.
Trump has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing related to Epstein and has said their friendship ended in the early 2000s. Still, the publication of thousands of additional pages has renewed scrutiny of his past ties to Epstein and how his administration is handling the case.
What the New Documents Show
Among the newly released material are emails between Epstein and his associate Ghislaine Maxwell in which Epstein allegedly refers to Trump as “that dog that hasn’t barked.” In a message to author Michael Wolff, Epstein also claimed that Trump “knew about the girls” and that he had asked Maxwell to “stop.”
Despite the shift on Polymarket, the odds of impeachment remain relatively low, and there have been no serious, formal moves in Congress to begin a new impeachment process against Trump.
Trump was impeached twice during his first term in office and acquitted both times by the U.S. Senate. Even the launch of a new impeachment effort, successful or not, could complicate his presidency and weaken his perceived authority.
Political and Polling Fallout
The Epstein controversy is also emerging as a political liability in public opinion surveys. CNN data analyst Harry Enten said Thursday that the case is Trump’s “worst issue by far.”
He noted that Republican approval of Trump’s overall job performance remains high—around the upper 80s in percentage terms—but support for how his administration has dealt with the Epstein matter drops sharply. According to Enten, fewer than half of Republicans approve of the administration’s handling of the issue, suggesting significant unease even within Trump’s base.
Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., said in an interview that any realistic impeachment push would hinge on the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections. If Republicans lose control of the House, he argued, Democrats would likely move to open a third impeachment process. Should the GOP also lose the Senate, the chances of removal would rise substantially. Shanahan added that Trump will be highly motivated to shape the electoral environment—by “fair means or foul”—because the more orderly and uncontested the election appears, the greater the likelihood Democrats could claim a mandate to pursue impeachment.
How Trump and His Critics Are Responding
On Truth Social, Trump dismissed the latest Epstein revelations as a partisan distraction. He accused Democrats of resurrecting what he called the “Jeffrey Epstein Hoax” to divert attention from what he described as their failures on the government shutdown and other issues. He also warned Republicans not to “fall into that trap,” insisting they stay focused on reopening the country and repairing what he says is the damage caused by Democratic policies.
Democrats in Congress, meanwhile, argue that the new disclosures raise fresh questions about what the administration may still be withholding. House Oversight Committee Ranking Member Robert Garcia of California said in a statement that “the more Donald Trump tries to cover up the Epstein files, the more we uncover,” adding that the latest communications deepen concerns about both the nature of Trump’s relationship with Epstein and the White House’s transparency.
What Happens Next
The House of Representatives is poised to vote on whether to release the full cache of Epstein-related government records to the public. A petition to force that vote crossed the required threshold of 218 signatures on Wednesday, setting the stage for a high-profile showdown over how much more the American public will learn about Epstein—and about any potential links to the sitting president.
