Donald Trump’s once-solid grip on Iowa may be weakening as voter dissatisfaction grows over his policies on health care, agriculture, and renewable energy. While the state has reliably leaned Republican for nearly a decade, signs suggest that the Hawkeye State could become a battleground once again.
Trump won Iowa by 9 points in 2016, 8 in 2020, and maintained a similar margin in 2024. Supporters like former GOP state lawmaker Joe Mitchell insist, “We’d vote for him three more times if we could.” But beneath the surface, cracks are beginning to show.
Discontent Over Key Policies
Democrats and independents are sounding the alarm over parts of Trump’s agenda that they say hurt Iowans, especially in rural areas. Ben Nuckels, a Democratic strategist, pointed to proposed Medicaid cuts and support for cane sugar over corn syrup as examples of policies that could hurt both health care access and the state’s corn-based economy.
“Republicans talk about rural values, then cut the clinics and hospitals rural families depend on,” Nuckels told Newsweek, citing a Kaiser Family Foundation analysis estimating $4.45 billion in Medicaid losses for Iowa’s rural hospitals under Trump’s plans.
Julie Stauch, a Democratic candidate for governor, says frustration is palpable. “People are angry about everything from Medicaid cuts to water pollution and underfunded public schools,” she said. “They’re tired of being bullied by politicians who don’t listen.”
Corn Country Backlash
Trump’s push for major brands to swap out corn syrup in favor of imported cane sugar has drawn sharp criticism in Iowa, the nation’s top corn producer. Local farmers view the move as a betrayal of Trump’s “America First” rhetoric.
“All of our corn sweetener comes from American farms,” said Mark Mueller, a corn and soybean farmer in Waverly. “This isn’t just bad policy — it’s a slap in the face.”
The Corn Refiners Association estimates that eliminating high-fructose corn syrup could slash corn prices by up to 34 cents a bushel and cost farmers $5.1 billion in lost revenue. “Even a small drop in price can devastate farmers operating on thin margins,” Mueller added.
Wind Energy Woes
Trump’s opposition to wind energy has also sparked frustration in a state that generates over half its electricity from wind and supports thousands of jobs in the sector. His administration has accelerated the rollback of federal wind incentives and halted new leases on federal land.
The American Clean Power Association warns that more than 130,000 wind jobs could be at risk, many of them in Iowa. “We were promised investment in rural jobs,” said Stauch. “Instead, we’re getting cuts and broken promises.”
Republicans Remain Confident
Despite rising discontent, Republicans remain publicly optimistic. Iowa GOP Chair Jeff Kaufmann recently told Fox News that Trump “hasn’t forgotten who brought him to the dance.” Strategist Nicole Schlinger echoed that sentiment, praising Trump’s “straight-talking, hardworking” persona as a match for Iowa values.
Still, political observers warn that things could change. “Even when farmers were frustrated in 2020 over ethanol waivers, Trump still won big,” noted Christopher Larimer, a political science professor at the University of Northern Iowa. “But with more flashpoints piling up, this time could be different.”
A State in Play?
While flipping Iowa remains an uphill battle for Democrats, growing rural frustration could make the state more competitive than in recent cycles. As Stauch put it: “There’s a storm brewing here. And come Election Day, it might just hit.”
