President Donald Trump’s approval rating is running slightly higher than where President George W. Bush and President Barack Obama stood at the same point in their second terms, according to a new polling average.
Why It Matters
Comparing a sitting president’s approval rating with those of recent predecessors can offer useful context heading into the midterm cycle, when the president’s party often faces headwinds.
In 2018—during Trump’s first term—House Democrats flipped 40 seats in the midterm elections.
What to Know
A “Today in History” (TDIH) job-approval snapshot that compares presidents’ ratings on January 6 across different years shows Trump ahead of both Bush and Obama at the same stage of their second terms.
RealClearPolling’s aggregated rolling analysis lists Trump at 43.9 percent approval on January 6, 2026, compared with 43.6 percent for Bush on the same date during his second term and 42.4 percent for Obama at the same point in his second four years in office.
Trump’s second-term numbers have been higher than Obama’s since November, though they had been trailing Bush’s until just before Christmas.
Historically, Bush’s approval peaked at more than 90 percent in an ABC News poll after the September 11, 2001 attacks, before falling as low as 19 percent in a February 2008 American Research Group survey conducted during the global financial crisis, according to the Roper Center.
Trump’s end-of-term approval rating in January 2021 was 34 percent, matching Bush’s final Gallup figure when he left office in 2009. Obama left office at 59 percent approval in 2017, while President Bill Clinton was at 66 percent when he departed in 2001, according to Gallup.
Recent Polls
The average comes as Trump’s approval has edged up in two national polls:
- A Reuters/Ipsos online survey conducted January 4–5 among 1,248 U.S. adults put Trump’s approval at 42 percent, up from 39 percent in December. The margin of error was ±3 percentage points.
- An InsiderAdvantage poll of 800 likely voters conducted December 20 reported a net approval of +8.4 points, Trump’s strongest since August. In that poll, 49.5 percent approved, 41.1 percent disapproved, and 9.1 percent were undecided, with a margin of error of ±3.46 percentage points.
What They’re Saying
White House spokesperson Kush Desai said last month that the administration believes Americans are still dealing with “the lingering effects” of the Biden-era economy, and that reversing those conditions has guided actions from “Day One,” including energy and drug-pricing efforts. He added that the administration remains focused on job, wage, and growth outcomes.
Trump wrote on Truth Social last month: “The polls are rigged even more than the writers. The real number is 64 percent, and why not, our Country is ‘hotter’ than ever before. Isn’t it nice to have a STRONG BORDER, No Inflation, a powerful Military, and great Economy??? Happy New Year!”
What Happens Next
Approval ratings remain a key barometer as the administration advances policy priorities, including immigration enforcement and foreign policy actions. Any sustained movement—up or down—could shape the political environment and influence strategy as the midterms approach.
