Former President Donald Trump’s approval rating has dropped significantly among Republican voters, signaling cracks within his core base just months ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
A new Overton Insights/Targoz Market Research poll conducted June 23–26 among 1,200 registered voters found Trump’s net approval among Republicans slipping to +60 (79% approve, 19% disapprove)—down from +73 in March, when 86% approved and only 13% disapproved. The margin of error for both polls is ±2.7 percentage points.
Why It Matters
This marked decline suggests growing unease among GOP voters, which could have real consequences for Trump’s influence over Republican candidates, endorsements, and turnout in 2026. A shaky foundation within his own party also raises questions about his broader political strategy as he faces increasing pressure both at home and abroad.
The Iran Factor
Political analysts widely attribute the downturn to Trump’s controversial decision to order airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities—an escalation that sparked a retaliatory missile attack on a U.S. base in Qatar earlier this week.
Critics say the move undermines Trump’s past promises to avoid “endless wars.” Thomas Gift, director of the UCL Centre on U.S. Politics, noted that the strikes alienated Trump’s populist base. “His appeal in 2024 rested on ‘America First’ non-interventionism. Now that promise is starting to ring hollow,” he told Newsweek.
Other Voices, Other Concerns
Peter Loge, a political communications expert at George Washington University, argued that Trump’s focus on military action and high-profile crackdowns distracts from issues voters actually care about—like the rising cost of living. “Most people just want to afford groceries, gas, and healthcare,” Loge said. “Instead, Trump is pushing unpopular policies that could worsen inflation and reduce access to care.”
Polling Shows Mixed Signals
While Trump’s support among Republicans is wavering, broader national surveys also show fluctuating results.
- A YouGov/Economist poll (June 20–23) among 1,590 adults put Trump’s net approval among 2024 supporters at +69 (83% approve, 14% disapprove), down from +80 a month earlier.
- However, a follow-up YouGov poll (June 27–30) showed a rebound to +72, with 86% approval among his voters.
- Nationally, an ActiVote poll conducted throughout June found his approval at 45%, disapproval at 52%—a net –7, his worst since retaking office.
Other national polls echoed this decline:
- Ipsos/Reuters (June 21–23): 41% approve, 57% disapprove (net –16)
- American Research Group (June 17–20): 38% approve, 59% disapprove (net –21)
Yet, some recent surveys suggest a minor rebound:
- Navigator Research: Trump approval up from 43% to 45%
- YouGov/Economist: Up to 42% from 40%
- Morning Consult: 47%, up from 45%
- Marist/NPR/PBS: 43%, up from 42% in April
Historic Support Within the GOP?
Despite mixed national data, some analysts argue that Trump remains dominant within his party. CNN’s Harry Enten pointed out that Trump’s current average GOP approval (63%) surpasses that of any Republican president five months into a term in recent history—even Ronald Reagan.
“It’s history-making,” Enten said. “Trump is more beloved by the Republican base than any GOP president at this point in their term.”
Looking Ahead
Still, the decline in approval—even if temporary—underscores rising discontent over Trump’s foreign policy decisions, particularly among the working-class voters who formed the backbone of his MAGA coalition. If the trend continues, it could complicate his efforts to steer the GOP into the 2026 midterms and beyond.
