Betting odds on President Donald Trump leaving office—by any means, including resignation, impeachment, or removal under the 25th Amendment—before the end of his term have climbed in recent days on the prediction market Kalshi.
Why It Matters
Democratic critics have called for impeachment since Trump returned to office, but those efforts have not moved forward in the Republican-controlled Congress.
Critics point to Trump’s foreign policy moves—including the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—and his recent rhetoric about acquiring Greenland as grounds for impeachment, arguing he is abusing presidential power. Republican Rep. Don Bacon has indicated he could support impeachment under certain circumstances.
Some Democrats have also floated invoking the 25th Amendment, which allows members of the president’s Cabinet to remove him from office if they believe he is unfit to lead.
Prediction markets can reflect trader sentiment about current events, but they are not necessarily reliable forecasts.
What To Know
Kalshi’s market tracking whether Trump will be “out as president” before his term ends in 2029 has seen a notable jump. The market had nearly $1.4 million in volume on Wednesday.
- On January 13, bettors put the odds at 27% that Trump would be out of office before his term ends on January 20, 2029.
- By January 21, that number had risen to 40%.
Traders also appear to think any exit is more likely later rather than sooner:
- 34% believe he would be out before 2028.
- 18% believe it could happen this year.
The shift comes amid renewed public talk of impeachment or removal via the 25th Amendment. But impeachment would require a majority vote in the House—an uphill climb in the current Congress unless a bloc of Republicans breaks ranks. While there have been hints of possible openness, there has not been significant Republican backing so far.
Bacon suggested earlier this month that some Republicans could support impeachment if Trump uses the military to take over Greenland. On Wednesday, however, Trump dismissed speculation that he might use military force to acquire the Arctic island.
Control of the House will be contested in November, and Democrats are hopeful about their chances. If Democrats win a majority, impeachment efforts could intensify.
Trump has previously faced impeachment proceedings. In 2021, seven GOP senators voted alongside Democrats to convict Trump on an impeachment charge related to inciting the January 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol insurrection.
The 25th Amendment discussion centers on Section 4, which allows the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet to declare in writing that the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties of the office—making the vice president the acting president. If the president challenges that declaration, Congress decides. The president remains sidelined only if two-thirds of both the House and Senate vote that he is unable to serve. Congress has 21 days to reach a decision once the question is formally before it.
What People Are Saying
Trump said during his Davos speech on Wednesday:
“Nobody can dispute it. We give so much, and we get so little in return. I’ve been a critic of NATO for many years, and yet I’ve done more to help NATO than any other president by far, than any other person. You wouldn’t have NATO if I didn’t get involved in my first term. … They have a choice: You can say yes, and we will be very appreciative, or you can say no, and we will remember.”
Rep. Yassamin Ansari, an Arizona Democrat, wrote in an X post:
“The president of the United States is extremely mentally ill and it’s putting all of our lives at risk. The 25th Amendment exists for a reason—we need to invoke it immediately.”
Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove, a California Democrat, wrote in a January 19 X post:
“Donald Trump is unfit to lead and clearly out of control. Invoke the 25th Amendment.”
Sen. Ed Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat, wrote in a Monday X post:
“Invoke the 25th Amendment.”
Political commentator Harry Sisson wrote in an X post:
“It’s 1 am and Trump is awake posting AI images of him taking over Greenland. This is where we are as a country. 25TH AMENDMENT NOW!!!”
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said in a statement on Monday:
“Norway’s position on Greenland is clear. Greenland is a part of the Kingdom of Denmark, and Norway fully supports the Kingdom of Denmark on this matter. We also support that NATO in a responsible way is taking steps to strengthen security and stability in the Arctic. As regards the Nobel Peace Prize, I have clearly explained, including to President Trump what is well known, the prize is awarded by an independent Nobel Committee and not the Norwegian Government.”
French President Emmanuel Macron said on Tuesday in Davos:
“Let’s not accept a global order which will be decided by those who claim to have, I would say, the bigger voice or the bigger stick.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday, per the Associated Press:
“Now it’s not the Collective West writing the rules but just one of its representatives. It’s a major upheaval for Europe, and we are watching it. The Euro-Atlantic concept of ensuring security and cooperation has discredited itself.”
What Happens Next
As Trump’s Greenland push continues to unfold, Kalshi’s odds are likely to keep shifting—especially as political pressure, congressional dynamics, and campaign-year maneuvering accelerate.
