In a sobering assessment of European security, France’s Chief of Defence Staff, General Thierry Burkhard, has warned that Russia could once again pose a significant military threat to Europe within the next five years. The remarks were detailed in a recent interview with The Economist.
According to Burkhard, Russia’s aggressive rearmament, wartime contract manufacturing, and combat experience accumulated in Ukraine may enable it to rebuild sufficient capability to challenge NATO and European nations by 2030. Notably, he remarked that the Russian population endures longer in conflict, and its sheer scale could create sustained pressure in hostilities.
Burkhard emphasized that despite heavy losses on the Ukrainian front, Moscow’s vast industrial base continues to churn out war matériel. He identified Russia as “France’s principal threat across multiple dimensions,” including conventional and nuclear arsenals, disinformation campaigns, and undersea sabotage.
He underscored a strategic inflection point: Europe must no longer rely solely on past assumptions of stability. With possible U.S. force reductions and increasing global instability, Burkhard called for deeper European defense cohesion and readiness for high-intensity warfare.
Context & Broader Reactions
- EU and NATO leaders echo similar warnings. The EU’s Defense Commissioner, Andrius Kubilius, stated Russia might be ready to attack within five years or less, underscoring Europe’s need to accelerate defense integration.
- Comparable scenario analyses from German, Danish, and Norwegian military officials express concern that Russia may regain the capacity to threaten NATO territory in 3 to 8 years, with differing timelines based on production speed and alliance unity.
- A recent IISS report warns that by 2027, Russia could be a considerable nuisance, capable of hybrid operations or even military escalation if current trends persist.
What General Burkhard’s Warning Implies
- Urgency in European defense planning: France—and its Western allies—must continue expanding defense spending, deploying advanced systems, and improving readiness to deter future threats.
- Strategic pivot in posture: With potential U.S. drawbacks and hybrid warfare looming, Burkhard advocates for greater European autonomy, nuclear coordination, and civil defense preparedness.
- Hybrid threat environment: Russia is already deploying disinformation, espionage, undersea cable sabotage, and airspace provocations—suggesting war is being fought well below traditional battlefields.
Why This Matters Now
As of July 2025, France is unveiling unprecedented €6.5 billion in additional military budgets over two years, targeting emerging threats—from cyberattacks and misinformation to nuclear instability. By 2027, defense spending is projected to reach €64 billion annually—double levels seen at the start of Macron’s presidency.
This ambitious investment measures are seen as essential to shore up defense capabilities against a future in which Russia may re-emerge as a potent adversary on Europe’s doorstep.
Key Takeaways
| Theme | Summary |
|---|---|
| Timeline | Russia could rebuild to threaten Europe by around 2030 (i.e. within five years) |
| France’s posture | Russia is seen as the most durable and significant threat |
| Policy implications | Accelerated defense spending, enhanced NATO/European integration needed |
| Hybrid warfare realities | Espionage, sabotage, disinformation are already ongoing |
| Budget response | €6.5 B military boost by 2027 with strategic nuclear & technological planning |
In sum, General Burkhard’s warning marks a clear signal that Russia could again reach levels of threat by the end of the decade, prompting France and European nations into an escalating race to deter and prepare.
