A new poll highlights potential 2028 presidential election matchups between Vice President JD Vance and leading Democratic figures, as campaigns for next year’s midterms begin to take shape.
Why It Matters
Early polling, especially in swing states, is drawing attention as possible contenders for the 2028 presidential race emerge. While the election is still years away, these surveys offer an early look at candidate viability, voter preferences, and party dynamics in the aftermath of the 2024 cycle.
What To Know
The poll, released Tuesday by SoCal Strategies and sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, shows California Governor Gavin Newsom with 39 percent support in a potential matchup against Vance, who drew 37 percent. Another 23 percent of respondents were undecided.
In a hypothetical race against former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Vance polled at 37 percent, trailing Buttigieg’s 41 percent. About 21 percent were undecided in that scenario.
The survey of 700 U.S. adults was conducted on August 18. According to the pollster, the sample was “weighted by age, gender, race, education, and 2024 vote to match the Bonfire National Voter File.”
ESPN host Stephen A. Smith also performed competitively against Vance, receiving 35 percent to Vance’s 37 percent.
Previous surveys have positioned Vance as the leading GOP primary choice, while Democrats face a more competitive field with Kamala Harris, Newsom, and Buttigieg all considered early frontrunners.
Tuesday’s poll also recorded President Donald Trump’s approval rating at 45 percent, compared with a 48 percent disapproval rating.
What People Are Saying
Columbia University professor Robert Y. Shapiro told Newsweek via email:
“It is of course much too early to tell anything significant from this other than the 2028 election is likely to be close just like the last presidential elections. See the high percent undecided as well.
The data may suggest that Vance is not as strong a candidate as Donald Trump, but we would need to compare the hypothetical of Trump running for an imaginary third term against Newsom or Buttigieg. Regardless of what might happen in the midterm election, it looks like 2028 will be another nail biter…”
When asked directly at a press conference about Vance as the successor to MAGA, Trump responded:
“Well, I think most likely in all fairness, he’s the vice president. I think Marco [Rubio] is also somebody that maybe would get together with JD in some form. I also think we have incredible people, some of the people on the stage right here, so it’s too early obviously to talk about it but certainly he’s doing a great job, and he would be probably favored at this point.”
What Happens Next
More national and state-level polling is expected in the months ahead as midterm campaigning intensifies.
