California Governor Gavin Newsom’s prospects of becoming the Democratic Party’s next presidential nominee appear to be improving, according to new polling.
Fresh data from Emerson College shows that support for Newsom in hypothetical Democratic presidential primaries has risen by 13 percentage points between August and December. Although he has not officially entered the race, the governor told CBS News in October that he would make a decision after the 2026 midterm elections.
Newsweek reached out to Newsom’s office for comment outside of normal business hours.
Why It Matters
Newsom has regularly appeared near the top of lists of potential Democratic contenders in early 2028 primary polling. He has raised his national profile by giving speeches across the country sharply criticizing the Trump administration and by mimicking President Donald Trump’s online posting style to mock and challenge his policies.
In California, Newsom has also been a key player in redistricting efforts aimed at strengthening Democrats’ chances in future races.
Whoever ultimately emerges as the Democratic nominee will be responsible for shaping the party’s platform, attempting to bridge divides between moderates and progressives, and leading the effort to defeat the Republican candidate in 2028.
What To Know
In Emerson College’s latest survey of 567 likely Democratic primary voters:
- 36% said they would back Newsom
- 16% said they would support former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg
Back in August, the numbers were tighter: Newsom stood at 23%, while Buttigieg had 17%.
In the new poll, conducted December 1–2, New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez received 13%, and former Vice President Kamala Harris had 9%. Another 15% said they would choose someone else, and 11% remained undecided.
If Newsom ultimately leads the Democratic ticket, he is expected to govern from a relatively moderate position.
“We have to be a party that understands the importance and power of the border, substantively and politically,” he said during a Wednesday appearance at the New York Times’ DealBook Summit. He also argued that Democrats must present a “compelling economic vision for the future where people feel included.”
A separate Emerson College poll from October suggested a tight race if Newsom were matched against Vice President JD Vance in a future election: 46% of respondents backed Vance and 45% supported Newsom. Commentators have speculated that Vance could seek to succeed Trump.
What People Are Saying
In his October interview with CBS News, Newsom was direct when asked whether he would consider a presidential bid.
“Yeah, I’d be lying otherwise,” he said. “I’d just be lying. And I’m not – I can’t do that.”
What Happens Next
Newsom is set to leave office as governor of California in January 2027, when he reaches the state’s two-term limit.
Presidential hopefuls typically announce their campaigns after the midterm elections, and a range of Democratic and Republican figures are already being discussed as possible 2028 contenders.
