Vice President JD Vance holds a slim lead over three likely Democratic challengers in the 2028 presidential race, according to a new Emerson College poll released Friday.
Why It Matters
As President Donald Trump’s second-in-command, Vance is widely seen as a potential frontrunner for the Republican nomination in 2028. With Democrats looking to retake the White House, early polling helps sketch the field and gauge public sentiment—though these snapshots, years before the election, are far from predictive.
Despite the Democratic primary being several years away, notable names are already testing the waters by fundraising, increasing visibility, and making appearances in key early-voting states.
Key Poll Findings
The Emerson survey, conducted July 21–22 with 1,400 U.S. voters (±2.5% margin of error), tested Vance against three rising Democratic figures:
- Pete Buttigieg: The former Transportation Secretary came closest, trailing Vance 43% to 44%. Buttigieg has sparked speculation about a presidential run after opting out of a Michigan statewide race earlier this year.
- Gavin Newsom: The California governor received 42% to Vance’s 45%. Newsom recently visited South Carolina, fueling 2028 chatter despite his insistence he’s not currently planning to run.
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: The progressive New York congresswoman polled at 41% to Vance’s 44%. While she hasn’t indicated a presidential bid, she’s been floated as a potential Senate challenger to Chuck Schumer.
The poll did not include former Vice President Kamala Harris, who has yet to say if she’ll run again and is reportedly weighing a campaign for California governor.
Other Findings
President Trump’s approval rating remains evenly split: 46% approve of his performance, while 47% disapprove.
A separate Overton Insights poll conducted in late June showed Harris narrowly beating Vance, 45% to 42%, among 1,200 registered voters.
What People Are Saying
Spencer Kimball of Emerson College Polling noted: “A key takeaway from the ballot tests is that about 13% of the electorate remains persuadable, while the other 87% have already settled on a party preference.”
Buttigieg recently acknowledged Democrats face challenges with their national brand, saying in May, “There’s a lot of reasons for that. Some fair, and some not fair.”
Newsom told The Wall Street Journal in June: “I’m not thinking about running, but it’s a path that I could see unfold.”
Looking Ahead
The 2028 race is still in its early stages, with most candidates expected to wait until after the 2026 midterms to make official announcements. But with early positioning already underway, speculation will only grow as the political landscape evolves.
