The chances that Vice President JD Vance will secure the Republican nomination for the 2028 presidential election appear to be slipping, recent polling suggests.
Surveys by McLaughlin & Associates show that Vance’s once-comfortable advantage over Donald Trump Jr.—in a hypothetical primary field that includes other Republican contenders—has narrowed over the past few months.
Why It Matters
Under the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, adopted in 1951, presidents can serve only two terms. That means President Donald Trump will have to hand off the Republican banner to a new nominee in 2028.
Vance, the sitting vice president, has widely been viewed as a natural successor to Trump and a likely candidate to keep the current administration’s priorities in place. But a decline in his polling position could signal growing voter unease with the administration or a desire for a different direction within the GOP.
What the Polls Show
According to McLaughlin & Associates, Vance held a 20-point lead over Trump Jr. in August, with 36 percent support to Trump Jr.’s 16 percent. That gap widened to 28 points in September.
By October, however, his advantage had shrunk. Vance registered 38 percent, while Trump Jr. climbed to 20 percent, trimming the gap to 18 points. In November, the margin narrowed again to just 10 points, with Vance at 34 percent and Trump Jr. at 24 percent.
The most recent survey was conducted among 439 voters between November 17 and 24.
These shifts come as Trump’s own approval numbers have softened. A poll last month by The Economist/YouGov found his job approval at its lowest point since his return to office in January: 39 percent approved of the job he is doing, while 58 percent disapproved, giving him a net rating of -19 points.
Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., told Newsweek that the president’s standing is likely weighing on his vice president.
“Polls are pretty meaningless this far out from the election, but the issue for Vance is that he’s so closely tied to this Administration,” Shanahan said. “For the moment, he has to be in lockstep with the president. If he’s not, he simply isn’t doing the job he has been elected to fulfill. So, while Trump’s polling is languishing, Vance suffers.”
Other surveys, however, paint a more optimistic picture for Vance.
A YouGov poll conducted November 6–9 showed Vance with 42 percent support, while Trump Jr. trailed at 13 percent. That survey included 2,172 U.S. adults and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Polling by Echelon Insights from October 16–20 found Vance leading with 46 percent of the vote share. That survey of 1,010 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Other Possible 2028 Contenders
Beyond Vance and Trump Jr., other Republicans have been floated as potential 2028 hopefuls. An Axios report earlier this month, for example, mentioned Texas Senator Ted Cruz as a possibility.
Cruz responded to that speculation in a Fox News interview, saying: “Reporters are going to write headlines that get clicks and get eyeballs. I got a job. It’s representing 31 million Texans and it’s fighting every day for 31 million Texans.”
Shanahan noted that the current moment allows other Republicans to begin carving out their own identity.
“Other potential candidates—even those only under consideration because of their name, not their skill set—can start to build their individual political and policy identity,” he said. “A year before the midterms, this may give an advantage. But that may well disappear as the presidential primaries get closer.”
What Key Players Are Saying
Asked in October which Republicans might run in 2028, President Trump told reporters: “We have great people…We have JD, obviously, the vice president is great. I think [Secretary of State] Marco’s [Rubio] great. I think, I’m not sure if anybody would run against those. I think if they ever formed a group, it would be unstoppable. I really do. I believe that. I would love to do it. I have my best numbers ever.”
Vance himself sounded cautious when discussing the future during an appearance on Fox News with Sean Hannity earlier this month.
“I would say that I’ve thought about what that moment might look like after the midterm elections,” he said. “But I also, whenever I think about that, I try to put it out of my head and remind myself the American people elected me to do a job right now, and my job is to do it.”
Trump Jr., meanwhile, forcefully pushed back on a March report suggesting he was eyeing a 2028 run, arguing that his support for Vance undercuts that narrative.
“I accurately predicted that my buddy JD would be an instant power player in national GOP politics, so your theory is that I worked my [expletive] off to help get him the VP nomination because I want to run for president in 2028? Are you [expletive] retarded?” he said. “I’m actually glad you’re printing this [expletive] though because at least now the rest of the press corps will see how [expletive] your ‘sources’ are and how easily you’re played by them. Congrats, moron.”
What Happens Next
Most presidential contenders do not formally announce their campaigns until after the midterm elections, so it may be some time before Vance, Trump Jr., or other Republicans officially declare their intentions for 2028.
Until then, polling will continue to offer an early—though still volatile—snapshot of the race to inherit Trump’s political mantle, while speculation also grows over which Democrats will step forward to compete for the White House.
