Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem announced that about 1.6 million migrants without legal status have left the United States during the first 200 days of the Trump administration — a figure some immigration experts say is based on shaky preliminary survey data.
“This is massive. This means safer streets, taxpayer savings, pressure off schools and hospital services, and better job opportunities for Americans,” Noem said in an August 14 press release.
When Newsweek asked the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) for a detailed breakdown, including how many people left through self-deportation, the agency declined to provide specifics and instead pointed back to Noem’s press release.
Why It Matters
President Donald Trump promised what Republicans call the largest mass deportation operation in U.S. history. His administration has introduced hardline policies aimed at reducing the number of undocumented immigrants in the country.
What To Know
The 1.6 million figure was attributed to the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), which based its estimate on U.S. Census Bureau data. But the administration has not yet updated its own official immigration statistics pages online.
Deportation numbers have not been publicly updated since November 2024, and monthly Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reports do not currently include figures on self-deportations through the CBP Home app.
Julia Gelatt, associate director of the U.S. Immigration Program at the Migration Policy Institute, noted the estimate relies on the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS), which only samples about 60,000 households a month. “The survey’s estimates bounce around quite a bit from month to month,” Gelatt said, adding that the Census Bureau itself warns against using CPS data to estimate the size of the foreign-born population.
Steven Camarota, director of research at CIS, who first released the figure on August 12, called the findings “statistically significant.” But he also admitted that immigrants might be increasingly reluctant to respond to government surveys, which could inflate the appearance of a population decline.
Gelatt agreed that fewer immigrants may be answering the survey, fearing their information could be shared with immigration enforcement. “Lower response rates among immigrants would result in a falsely low estimate of the immigrant population,” she explained.
As part of her early initiatives, Noem rolled out a multimillion-dollar international advertising campaign urging undocumented immigrants to leave voluntarily. Officials say the campaign, along with stepped-up enforcement, has contributed to the decline.
DHS has also replaced the old CBP One App with the CBP Home App under “Operation Homecoming.” The program lets undocumented immigrants arrange self-deportation while offering $1,000 and a free flight as incentives for voluntary departure.
Meanwhile, DHS reported that over 352,000 undocumented immigrants were arrested and more than 324,000 were formally removed from the country.
What People Are Saying
Gelatt said a drop of 1.6 million in just six months would be “far outside trends the U.S. has seen before, even during economic recessions and high enforcement periods.”
David Bier, director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute, was more direct: “There is no doubt that the immigrant population has declined since January. But DHS is relaying a faulty analysis of the Current Population Survey. The CPS should not be used to estimate the number of immigrants, let alone illegal immigrants.”
He added that the survey’s small sample size, combined with the chilling effect of the administration’s policies, makes the 1.6 million figure unreliable. “The government has not deported nor recorded self-deportations anywhere near that number.”
In her press release, Noem maintained: “In less than 200 days, 1.6 million illegal immigrants have left the United States population.”
What Happens Next
The Trump administration is expected to continue large-scale arrests and removals as its immigration crackdown intensifies.
