A recent Emerson College poll indicates Vice President JD Vance holds a narrow lead over three prominent Democrats who could enter the 2028 presidential race.
Vance, widely expected to be the Republican nominee, is polling ahead of former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.
The poll, conducted July 21–22 among 1,400 registered voters, shows the tightest race between Vance and Buttigieg. In that matchup, 44% back Vance, while 43% support Buttigieg.
Against Ocasio-Cortez, Vance leads 44% to 41%, and in a head-to-head with Newsom, Vance garners 45% to Newsom’s 42%.
Between 13% and 15% of voters in each scenario remain undecided, according to the survey.
“A key takeaway from the ballot tests is that about 13% of the electorate remains persuadable, while the other 87% have already settled on a party preference,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
