The Republican-led Senate’s narrow approval of President Donald Trump’s sweeping “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” may have locked in more than just a legislative win — it could also spell serious trouble for the GOP in next year’s elections, according to a former Republican senator.
In a report published Tuesday by The New York Times, journalist Tyler Pager described the bill as yet another testament to Trump’s dominance over the Republican Party. Despite internal resistance to some of his more controversial Cabinet picks, the party has largely fallen in line behind his legislative agenda.
But former Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, a longtime Trump critic who left the Senate during Trump’s first term and later joined the Biden administration, warned that passage of the bill could come at a steep political cost.
“The president’s power is at its peak right now,” Flake told the Times. “But from here, it’s downhill — and then voters have their say. That’s a very different dynamic depending on where you’re running.”
“If I were worried about re-election, I’d think long and hard before voting for this,” Flake added.
The bill cleared the Senate with Vice President JD Vance casting the tie-breaking vote. It now heads to the House, where final approval is still uncertain. If the House amends the bill, it must return to the Senate — a move that risks unraveling the delicate support it has already secured.
At least 20 House Republicans are reportedly opposed to the Senate’s version. Still, Trump has issued stark warnings to lawmakers: vote against the bill, and face a primary challenger. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) is among those already in the former president’s crosshairs.
According to GOP strategist Alex Conant, that threat carries real weight.
“Most House Republicans live in fear of a Trump-backed primary opponent,” Conant explained. “If Trump endorses their challenger, that could be the end of their political career. A no vote on this bill could be a death sentence in a GOP primary.”
With the bill’s fate — and possibly the GOP’s electoral future — hanging in the balance, the coming days could define the party’s trajectory for years to come.
