U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has made a bold and highly controversial promise: that by September, the federal government will finally uncover the cause of what he calls the “autism epidemic.”
“We are going to know by September,” Kennedy said during an April Cabinet meeting with President Donald Trump, attributing the prediction to a large-scale federal research initiative he launched. He claimed the effort involves “hundreds of scientists from around the world” and aims to “eliminate those exposures” once identified.
Kennedy, a long-time vaccine skeptic, credited the study’s direction to a fellow anti-vaccine advocate. He reiterated discredited claims about a sharp rise in autism, stating that while only 1 in 10,000 children were diagnosed when he was a child, the rate today is closer to 1 in 31.
Medical experts, however, overwhelmingly disagree with that framing. The increase in diagnoses is largely attributed to broader diagnostic criteria, greater awareness, and improved screening—not a mysterious environmental cause. According to the National Institutes of Health, autism is believed to result from a complex mix of genetic and environmental factors, not a single trigger.
President Trump responded to Kennedy’s comments by echoing the conspiracy-laden speculation: “You stop taking something, you stop eating something. Or maybe it’s a shot. But something’s causing it.”
In March, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reportedly greenlit a new study exploring vaccine links to autism—despite years of rigorous research across the globe that has found no credible evidence of such a connection.
The man reportedly leading the study, David Geier, has a controversial past. He’s published widely debunked studies linking vaccines to autism—some of which have been retracted—and was sanctioned in Maryland for practicing medicine without a license.
The move triggered a wave of concern inside the nation’s health agencies. Dr. Peter Marks, the FDA’s top vaccine official, resigned shortly after Geier’s hiring was reported. According to The Washington Post, Marks was pushed out and cited Kennedy’s “campaign of misinformation and lies” as the reason for his departure.
Kennedy’s sweeping claims have ignited alarm in the medical community, which fears that the administration’s embrace of disproven theories could undermine public health.
