A new report warns that the United States’ waning birth rate and slowing population growth could deal a significant blow to the country’s economic competitiveness.
IMPLAN, an economic impact analysis platform, estimates that if population growth had continued at its 2024 pace, billions of dollars in consumer spending would have circulated through American businesses, supporting jobs, wages, and broader economic output.
But newer data pointing to a further fertility slowdown in 2025 suggests the U.S. could now miss out on an estimated $103.9 billion in gross domestic product (GDP).
Why It Matters
Declining birth rates can strain an economy by shrinking the future labor force and consumer base while increasing the average age of the population. That shift can push up costs for programs such as health care and pensions, while reducing tax revenue as the working-age population becomes smaller.
“An economy requires a steady stream of people who work, spend money, and replace those who retire,” said Nadège Ngomsi, an economist at IMPLAN. “When the birth rate falls and immigration slows, this necessary talent supply dries up, leaving businesses without enough workers to build homes or staff critical services. Without a growing workforce to buy goods and support the tax base, infrastructure begins to crumble, and the entire economy slows down.”
Similar demographic declines have been cited as contributors to economic stress in other countries, some of which have responded with policies such as direct cash incentives and tax benefits to encourage larger families.
What To Know
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that even though the total number of births rose, the fertility rate still fell to a record low of 1.6 births per woman—further below the level considered necessary to replace the population over time.
Preliminary 2025 estimates show the trend continuing. The general fertility rate—births per 1,000 women of childbearing age—fell to 53.6 in the third quarter, down from 54.6 in the same period the year before.
IMPLAN estimates that slower population growth in 2025 meant roughly 1.4 million fewer people contributing to housing demand, retail spending, and service consumption. Researchers said this shortfall could trigger ripple effects throughout the economy.
The report links the “growth gap” to about $86.2 billion in lost household spending—activity that could have supported more than 740,000 jobs and generated $53.5 billion in labor income, while contributing to the projected $103.9 billion GDP reduction.
Rather than unfolding as a slow-moving demographic shift, the report suggests the slowdown is showing up like an immediate demand shock, with businesses seeing reduced transaction volume.
The impact is also expected to vary by sector, with housing, health care, and service industries facing the steepest effects. A projected drop in international migration could deepen the strain in states such as California, New York, and Texas, which depend on newcomers to offset domestic out-migration.
What People Are Saying
A recent report from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health noted that sub-replacement fertility can create economic pressure by reducing the number of workers, spenders, and savers needed to sustain growth.
At the same time, the share of the population over 65 is expanding rapidly, increasing reliance on programs such as Social Security and Medicare. With fewer younger working adults, funding those systems becomes more difficult, the report said.
Ngomsi also emphasized that “growth is an economic stimulus,” noting that each additional person increases demand for housing, food, health care, and services.
She added that while falling birth rates are increasingly cited by politicians, the U.S. lacks a broad federal family policy—such as universal child care—seen in some other countries. The country did see a small increase in births in 2025 (about 12,200 more than the previous year), she said, but not enough to reverse the broader trend.
What Happens Next
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the U.S. fertility rate will remain below replacement level in 2026 and beyond. With immigration also expected to level off, the CBO forecasts that overall population growth could slow to zero by 2056.
