Republicans are losing ground with independent voters heading into November’s midterm elections, according to new national polling.
An Emerson College Polling survey released Thursday shows Democrats holding a wide lead among independents, 50% to 28% — a 22-point advantage.
With nearly 90% of likely Republican and Democratic voters planning to back their party’s congressional candidates in 2026, Emerson executive director Spencer Kimball said independents could play an outsized role in deciding November’s results.
The survey found that 33% of independents approve of President Trump’s job performance, compared with 86% of Republicans. It also found that 66% of independents believe the country is on the wrong track.
Independents have grown as a share of the electorate in recent decades. Gallup reports that 45% of Americans identify as independent in 2026, up from 31% in 2004.
Overall, Democrats lead Republicans 48% to 42% on the generic congressional ballot in the Emerson survey. About 22% of independents said they are undecided in a hypothetical 2026 matchup.
On the economy, 54.6% of respondents said Trump’s policies are making conditions worse, while 37.9% said they are making the economy better.
The poll also found that roughly two-thirds of independents believe Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s presence in communities is more harmful than helpful. Across all likely voters surveyed, 57% disapprove of ICE’s presence.
The results come after a Jan. 7 incident in Minneapolis in which an ICE agent fatally shot 37-year-old Renee Good, sparking large protests and sharp criticism of federal immigration authorities from Democratic officials, including Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey. The Trump administration has said the agent acted in self-defense.
Trump is expected to travel to Iowa next Tuesday to deliver a speech focused on energy and the economy. White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles told the New York Post that Trump is “going to campaign like it’s 2024” ahead of the midterms.
Some Republicans have argued that if Democrats win back control of the House in November, they will move to impeach the president for a third time.
Kimball also pointed to a gender divide in the generic ballot.
“Women break for the Democratic candidate 53% to 38%, while 47% of men support the Republican and 42% the Democrat,” Kimball said in a statement released with the survey.
The Emerson national survey polled 1,000 likely voters from Jan. 17–19 and reported a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
A New York Times–Siena University survey also released Thursday found Democrats leading by 5 points on the generic ballot and holding a 15-point advantage among independent voters.
