No modern politician has commanded loyalty from his core supporters quite like President Donald Trump. That unwavering backing has been central to his political survival.
Whenever Trump has been under intense pressure – after the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack, or following his multiple indictments – his base has consistently helped keep him politically alive. Many Republican officials fear breaking with him, and that fear has allowed Trump to weather scandals that would likely have ended the careers of almost anyone else.
But that dynamic is shifting. The cracks that have been visible for some time within Trump’s base are now beginning to widen.
It’s not just high-profile allies like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia who are signaling discomfort with some of his actions.
A series of recent polls show that at least 1 in 5 Republicans disapprove of Trump on several key issues. On some topics, disapproval climbs even higher, approaching or crossing the 50% mark.
Trump’s overall approval among Republicans remains strong, but these numbers suggest that the party faithful are no longer uniformly in his corner.
Here are the main pressure points.
Jeffrey Epstein Records (3 in 10 or More Republicans Disapprove)
On very few issues has Trump fared as poorly with Republicans as he has on the handling of Jeffrey Epstein–related information.
In many surveys, fewer than half of Republicans say they approve of his approach, with a sizable chunk opting for a neutral stance.
A recent Reuters-Ipsos poll found that 31% of Republicans disapproved of Trump on this issue, compared with 44% who approved and 25% who chose neither.
When pollsters push respondents to take a clearer position, the picture gets worse. A Marquette University Law School poll found that a majority of Republicans – 54% – disapproved of how Trump handled “information about Jeffrey Epstein.”
Inflation and Cost of Living (Around 25% – and Sometimes Much Higher)
This may be Trump’s most politically dangerous vulnerability, simply because voters care so deeply about their wallets.
Recent surveys generally show about 1 in 4 Republicans giving him poor marks on inflation and the cost of living. Disapproval among Republicans was 24% in a Yahoo News–YouGov poll, 25% in a CBS News–YouGov poll and 26% in the Reuters-Ipsos survey.
In the Marquette poll, however, Republican disapproval on this issue spiked to 39%.
And that might still understate the problem. One CBS poll found that 57% of Republicans believe the administration has not focused enough on reducing the cost of goods and services – which is, in effect, another form of disapproval.
Trump’s standing with Republicans on the broader economy has also softened. His disapproval within the party was as high as 22% in a Fox News poll and 32% in an AP-NORC survey.
The Argentina Bailout (Possibly Two-Thirds Against It)
This issue has flown under the radar publicly, but it’s striking that Democrats haven’t highlighted it more aggressively.
Republican Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky recently suggested that Trump’s decision to spend tens of billions of dollars to support Argentina’s government could be a “deal-breaker” for the MAGA base. It appears to cut directly against the “America First” message.
Polling suggests Paul may have a point.
Marquette’s survey showed that 69% of Republicans disapproved of Trump “providing $20–$40 billion to help stabilize Argentina’s economy.”
It’s just one poll and more data would be helpful, but the idea that roughly 7 in 10 Republicans might disapprove of Trump on any issue would once have been nearly unimaginable.
Ukraine (At Least 1 in 5 Republicans Unhappy)
Trump faces multiple challenges with his base over Ukraine.
He vowed to end the war on his first day back in office but has obviously not delivered on that promise. He has also taken positions widely seen as sympathetic to Russia, unsettling more hawkish Republicans – including with a recent ceasefire proposal that critics said might as well have been drafted in Moscow.
Republican disapproval on this front has ranged from 23% in a recent Gallup poll to as high as 40% in the Marquette poll.
There’s broader fatigue with Trump’s focus on foreign affairs among some Republicans, who want him to concentrate more on domestic concerns. The same Gallup survey found that 22% of Republicans disapproved of his handling of the situation in the Middle East, despite the recent ceasefire agreement in Gaza.
Health Care (Roughly 19% to 32% Disapprove)
Health care might surprise some as a weak spot, but recent data suggests that Democratic efforts to tie the government shutdown fight to Obamacare subsidies have had an impact.
Trump is now seeing some of his worst Republican numbers on health policy, comparable to the backlash during the GOP’s failed attempt to repeal Obamacare in 2017.
His disapproval among Republicans on health care was 19% in a Reuters poll, 21% in Gallup, 26% in a Fox News survey and up to 32% in the AP-NORC poll.
Managing the Government (32% to 48% Disapprove)
This has become a simmering problem that is starting to boil over.
Pew Research Center found that the share of Republicans who believed Trump was making the federal government work better dropped from 76% in February to 55% in August.
The government shutdown appears to have deepened those concerns.
In early November, an AP-NORC poll showed that 32% of Republicans disapproved of Trump’s handling of the federal government. The Marquette survey found that nearly half – 48% – disapproved of his management of the shutdown specifically.
These aren’t just minor blips; they’re meaningful fractures in what was once considered an almost monolithic base. Whether these cracks eventually lead to a real break with Trump is unclear. But it’s evident that Republican dissatisfaction with him – on multiple fronts – is more visible now than at almost any point in his political career.
