A new national survey suggests Democrats are in a strong position heading into next year’s midterm elections. If voting for Congress were held today, 55 percent of voters say they would back a Democratic candidate, while 41 percent would choose a Republican, according to the PBS News/NPR/Marist poll conducted November 10–13.
That 14-point advantage is the largest for Democrats since November 2017. It also echoes the political climate ahead of the 2018 midterms, when Democrats gained more than 40 seats in the House during Donald Trump’s first term.
Why It Matters
The numbers point to a favorable environment for Democrats as they look to reclaim control of both the House and Senate in the November 2026 midterms. The poll also reflects rising voter frustration with Republicans after a period of political turbulence, hinting at potential headwinds for the GOP next year.
What To Know
Independents appear to be driving much of the Democratic lead. Among voters who don’t identify with either major party, 61 percent say they would vote Democratic, compared with 28 percent favoring Republicans—a striking 33-point gap.
The survey also highlights a sharp divide in how voters view each party’s willingness to hear opposing views. Overall, 60 percent of Americans say Republicans come across as mostly closed-minded in political discussions, while 39 percent describe them as open-minded. Democrats are seen more positively on that measure: 51 percent call them open-minded, and 48 percent say they are closed-minded.
Among independents, the contrast is even clearer. Nearly 69 percent say Republicans seem mostly closed-minded, while 53 percent say Democrats tend to approach political conversations more openly.
Trump’s standing also remains a drag for Republicans in the poll. His approval rating sits at 39 percent approve to 56 percent disapprove, a net -17—down from -12 in September.
The results follow a series of recent Democratic wins in high-profile races. In New York City, Zohran Mamdani defeated former Governor Andrew Cuomo to become the city’s first Muslim mayor earlier this month. Democrats also won statewide contests in Virginia and New Jersey, where Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill captured the governorships. In California, voters approved Proposition 50, a redistricting plan backed by Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom.
Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of The Cook Political Report, said the run of victories has “consequences in invigorating Democrats” as midterms approach. Republicans, meanwhile, have been sounding alarms. Former White House strategist Steve Bannon warned on X that the party should treat the recent losses as an early signal of trouble ahead.
What Happens Next
The next midterm elections are scheduled for November 2026, with control of Congress up for grabs.
