As tax season ramps up, the Treasury Department is promoting what it says will be a major boost in refunds for millions of Americans—tied to newly enacted “Working Families Tax Cuts.”
In a social media update posted earlier this week, Treasury said refunds could climb sharply as returns begin flowing in.
“With the opening of tax filing season last week, President Trump’s Working Families Tax Cuts are set to deliver the biggest refunds in American history,” the Treasury Department wrote.
The department said Americans can now take advantage of provisions including “no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, no tax on auto loans for American-made cars,” along with a boosted child tax credit, a doubled standard deduction, and “$1,000 for children’s Trump accounts.”
Why the change matters
The IRS has previously said it expects to receive 164 million individual tax returns this year. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also predicted refunds could be unusually large for many households—especially early on.
“The bill was passed in July, working Americans didn’t change their withholding, so they’re going to be getting very large refunds in the first quarter,” Bessent said. “So I think we’re going to see $100-$150 billion of refunds, which could be between $1,000, $2,000 per household. Then, they’ll change their withholding, and they’ll get a real increase in their wages.”
In other words: if withholding wasn’t adjusted after the law passed, many filers may have paid more throughout the year than necessary—setting up potentially larger refunds now. Over time, if withholding is updated, the benefit may show up more in paychecks instead of a lump-sum refund.
Treasury teases an extra $1,000 for households
Treasury’s newest message suggests the average refund could rise by about $1,000 per household, with over 100 million households expected to receive a refund.
The department also highlighted families with children as a key focus of the new provisions.
It said 7.5 million families with two children could see an estimated $1,700 tax cut tied to the enhanced child tax credit—after the credit was increased to $2,200 and adjusted for inflation.
Standard deduction doubled for most filers
Treasury also emphasized a major shift for a broad swath of taxpayers: the standard deduction has been doubled, a change it says impacts nearly 90% of taxpayers and is intended to make filing simpler.
What experts are saying
Economists and tax analysts have also pointed to refund increases as a likely near-term effect.
CBS News previously reported that many Americans could see bigger refunds when filing 2025 returns due to provisions that are retroactive to the start of the current year, citing an analysis from Oxford Economics. The report said total taxpayer savings could reach $50 billion, either via larger refunds or reduced 2026 taxes. CBS noted that a $50 billion boost would represent an 18% increase from the $275 billion in refunds the IRS issued this year to nearly 94 million taxpayers who overpaid on their 2024 federal returns.
CNBC also reported that tax experts and analysts broadly expect higher refunds, quoting Heather Berger, a U.S. economist with Morgan Stanley: “Overall, we’re expecting these changes to increase refunds by 15% to 20% on average.”
Key date to know
The federal tax filing deadline remains April 15.
