President Donald Trump’s approval rating among non-college voters is “absolutely collapsing,” according to CNN polling analyst Harry Enten.
A White House spokesperson said the administration remains focused on lowering inflation, boosting growth, securing the border, and deporting criminal undocumented immigrants.
Why It Matters
Non-college voters have long been central to Trump’s political coalition. Any sustained erosion in that group could affect his standing and reshape Republican prospects in the 2026 midterm elections.
What To Know
Enten said Trump’s approval among voters without a college degree has shifted from a major advantage to a net negative, a change he argued is weighing on Republicans heading into 2026.
Using a 2024 CNN exit poll, his own aggregation, and Pew Research Center data, Enten described what he called a 23-point swing among non-college voters: from Trump winning the group by 14 points over Kamala Harris in 2024 to a current net approval rating of minus 9. He said the movement reflects a sharp shift away from one of Trump’s core constituencies.
Enten also argued the change is broader than Trump. He said Republican support among non-college voters has weakened as well. In the last presidential cycle, Republicans won non-college voters by 13 points, but recent polling shows the GOP leading that group by just 4.
Enten added that Democrats continue to dominate among college-educated voters by roughly 20 points, saying Democratic strength with college voters is rising while Republican strength with non-college voters is weakening.
The shift comes as Trump continues to emphasize economic stewardship. In a recent interview, he said he was proud of the state of the economy, but Enten said polling suggests some non-college voters see a gap between Trump’s message and their lived experience—particularly regarding manufacturing jobs.
What Are People Saying
Enten said Trump built his electoral success on winning voters without a college degree, but argued that support from that group is now falling. He said Trump’s message is not matching what these voters perceive as reality, and that the decline is affecting Republicans more broadly.
The White House spokesperson said nearly 80 million Americans gave Trump a mandate to address the economy and immigration, adding that the administration is focused on inflation, growth, border security, and deporting criminal undocumented immigrants.
Trump posted on Truth Social that he had the highest poll numbers he has ever received and said people want a strong country with a strong economy. He also criticized Democrats in remarks to NBC, arguing they avoided the issue of affordability and blaming them for the state of the economy when he took office.
What Happens Next
If the decline among non-college voters continues, Republicans may need to improve with that group or make gains elsewhere to maintain their congressional advantage in 2026.
