The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced on Monday that it has canceled the release of its advance estimate for third-quarter GDP.
Officials said the estimate was scrapped due to disruption from the recent federal government shutdown. The move, however, has prompted criticism and fueled speculation that the data may have painted a weaker picture of economic growth.
Why It Matters
The GDP report is the latest key economic indicator to be delayed in the wake of the shutdown, following other missed releases such as the October jobs report.
These gaps in data are raising questions about the true state of the economy at a moment when President Donald Trump is still touting robust growth, even as worries about affordability, inflation and unemployment persist.
What To Know
The advance estimate for third-quarter GDP, originally scheduled for October 30, has been canceled with no new release date set.
The BEA has also pushed back the release of its September inflation data, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish the October jobs report or Consumer Price Index due to data-collection issues linked to the shutdown.
Critics have argued that the missing GDP figures may be concealing weaker-than-advertised economic performance.
Democratic Representative Rosa DeLauro reacted on X, writing of the cancellation: “They only do this when it’s really good news.”
Democratic Representative Darren Soto posted: “Trump’s tariff torture: My ‘advanced estimate’ is that the economy is awful.”
Edward Dowd, founder of Phinance Technologies and author, suggested on X that the decision not to release the report signaled serious trouble for what he called the “Golden Economy,” saying the wheels “must be coming off” that narrative.
Social media commentator BrooklynDad_Defiant! wrote: “Nothing says ‘booming economy’ like…canceling the GDP report. If it were good, they wouldn’t hide it. FUN FACT: This is the first time in HISTORY that both the Jobs Report and GDP Report have been canceled at the same time. This trump economy is a BUST.”
Another commenter, Vince Wilson, added on X: “First they canceled the jobs report due to the shutdown and now they are canceling the Q3 GDP report…. how bad is our economy that they are hiding the data.”
Despite the mounting speculation, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model—which tracks available federal data in real time—had previously suggested that third-quarter growth was likely to be solid.
What People Are Saying
Earlier this month, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt blamed Democrats for the shutdown and the resulting data problems, telling reporters: “The Democrats may have permanently damaged the Federal Statistical system with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released.”
She continued: “All of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policymakers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period.”
Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell warned in October that the lack of timely data due to the shutdown could affect the central bank’s policy decisions. “What do you do when you’re driving in the fog?” he said. “You slow down.”
What Happens Next
With no replacement date set for the third-quarter GDP estimate, economists, markets and policymakers are left without a key snapshot of U.S. economic performance, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already contentious debate over the health of the economy.
