President Donald Trump’s press conference on Monday painted a dark picture of crime in Washington, D.C. He announced the deployment of the National Guard and described plans to “rescue our nation’s capitol from crime, bloodshed, bedlam and squalor.”
But the facts tell a very different story. Crime in D.C. has actually been going down since it peaked in 2023. So far this year, murders are down 34% compared to the same period last year. In fact, D.C.’s violent crime rate in 2024 was the second-lowest rate reported to the FBI since 1966.
Looking just at murder rates, there has been progress across the country, not just in Washington. The FBI recently released 2024 crime data in the United States showing an almost 15% drop in murders from 2023 to 2024. This was even bigger than the 10% drop seen in 2023 and brought the murder rate below pre-pandemic levels. Early numbers for 2025 show the trend is continuing.
These FBI statistics challenge Trump’s frequent claims on the campaign trail that crime is rising in the U.S. His statements likely contributed to a sharp political divide over whether Americans believed crime was getting worse.
Beyond D.C., other major cities are also seeing record-low murder numbers. Los Angeles recorded the fewest murders through June since 1966. New York City has the lowest murder count through June since 1960. Philadelphia saw the fewest murders since 1969, Baltimore since 1965, Detroit since 1964, and San Francisco set an all-time low.
Experts aren’t completely sure why murder rates are dropping. The answer doesn’t fit neatly into political debates. Since the drop is happening in many cities, the main causes seem to be national, not local. This is happening even though most medium and large police departments have fewer officers now than in the past and clearance rates are still low.
The drop is happening despite persistent problems like poverty and widespread gun ownership. It also isn’t linked to recent changes in immigration policy because the decline started in 2023.
So what might explain the big drop in murders? One likely factor is increased spending on community and infrastructure projects. After the pandemic, local and state governments invested heavily in construction, supported by programs like the American Rescue Plan and the Inflation Reduction Act.
This federal support helped local governments rehire workers lost during the pandemic. Public construction grew by 40% between 2021 and 2024, including streets, highways, lighting, and public safety projects. Data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics shows large increases in neighborhood centers and lighting improvements after the pandemic.
Research shows that municipal improvements like better street lighting can reduce violent crime. New community centers can also help prevent crime by giving people safe spaces to gather.
The Department of Justice (DOJ) also increased funding for local programs. Community grants grew by over $1 billion between 2021 and 2023, including about $90 million per year for the DOJ’s Community Based Violence Intervention and Prevention Initiative.
The results of these investments are especially clear in New Orleans, where the author worked as a crime analyst. In 2022, the city had the highest murder rate in the U.S., with 250 fewer police officers after the pandemic and long response times. By the end of 2024, the murder rate had dropped by half, reaching the lowest number through June since 1970, despite a terrorist attack on Bourbon Street on January 1.
New Orleans used federal funding and local efforts to stabilize its budget, boost construction, and launch new programs. A 2023 DOJ grant funded a pilot “violence interrupter” program that helps mediate conflicts in the community and hospitals. This program later received more city funding, expanding its impact.
Other programs include N.O.D.I.C.E., which uses data to identify high-risk areas, and joint task forces between the police and federal agencies. A local alliance of 600 organizations raised over $11 million to support youth programs.
Criminologists still aren’t sure why murders fell so sharply in the 1990s, so it’s unclear which programs have the biggest impact. But overall, cities with post-pandemic budgets, federal support, increased construction, and community programs have seen the strongest declines.
Crime trends are complicated, and we may never know every reason murders have dropped in the past few years. But investment in communities—through construction, stable budgets, and innovative programs—seems to be a major factor.
Right now, crime is falling in the U.S., and the murder rate this year may be the lowest ever recorded. Violent crime is still too common, but declaring a crisis and sending in the military won’t solve the problem. The most effective results have come from strong community investment and smart, targeted policing—not just aggressive enforcement.
