President Donald Trump told a group of leading oil executives on Jan. 9 at the White House that U.S. companies—along with some European firms—could invest at least $100 billion in Venezuela to rapidly rebuild the country’s struggling oil industry and generate major returns.
Industry leaders, however, quickly tempered that vision, stressing that Venezuela remains too risky for large-scale, long-term commitments unless the country enacts sweeping legal, commercial, and security reforms.
“Today, it’s uninvestable,” ExxonMobil Chairman and CEO Darren Woods said. He argued that Venezuela would need durable investment protections, a credible legal system, and stable commercial terms before major companies could responsibly deploy significant capital.
Woods said Exxon could send a technical team to Venezuela within about two weeks to evaluate conditions, but he stopped short of signaling any broader return. Exxon’s caution is shaped by history: the company has had assets seized in Venezuela twice, most recently during the 2007 expropriations.
“We’ve had our assets seized there twice,” Woods said, adding that a third attempt to reenter would require major and sustained changes from the status quo.
Trump frames a new deal—industry emphasizes risk
Trump has repeatedly cited the 2007 expropriations involving Exxon and ConocoPhillips as a key grievance. He has also used them as part of the justification for the Jan. 3 military action and the arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, alongside allegations of drug and human trafficking. Trump has described the expropriations as the largest theft in American history.
At the public portion of the Jan. 9 meeting, Trump said the administration would begin outlining the boundaries of a deal designed to encourage investment while ensuring companies can recoup capital quickly.
“We’re going to start talking about the confines of a deal,” Trump said before moving into a private session. “We have to get [oil companies] to invest, and we have to get their money back as quickly as we can, and then we can divvy it all up between Venezuela and the United States and them.”
Chevron outlines “phase one,” while analysts see a long road
Chevron Vice Chairman Mark Nelson—whose company is currently the only U.S. producer operating in Venezuela under a special license—said Chevron could increase its flows by about 50% in under two years as part of an initial phase. Even then, the scale of the rebound would be modest compared to Venezuela’s peak output decades ago.
Venezuela is producing just under 1 million barrels per day, according to the discussion at the meeting, far below the roughly 4 million barrels per day the country once produced.
Because Chevron already has infrastructure and an operating presence through its partnership with Venezuelan state company PDVSA, analysts view it as positioned to benefit most quickly if conditions stabilize, while competitors remain wary. “We are certainly committed to [Venezuela’s] present,” Nelson said, “and we very much look forward…to help it build a better future.”
Research firm Rystad Energy estimates that more than doubling Venezuela’s current production could take until around 2030 and cost roughly $110 billion, while tripling output back toward early-2000s levels could take well over a decade and closer to $185 billion.
ConocoPhillips pushes for structural changes, including PDVSA
ConocoPhillips Chairman and CEO Ryan Lance also expressed interest, but emphasized that reforms would need to come first—potentially including a restructuring of PDVSA itself. Conoco is described as the largest creditor tied to Venezuela’s resource-related expropriations nearly two decades ago.
“As we think big and bold, we need to be also thinking about even restructuring the entire Venezuelan energy system, including PDVSA,” Lance said. “If we can do that…there’s opportunity.”
Trump told Lance that companies would start with a “clean slate” and would not be reimbursed for past write-offs. Lance said Conoco’s write-offs were valued at about $12 billion.
Asked about safeguards for companies, Trump acknowledged the risks but said the administration would support participants. “They know the risks. There are risks. We’re going to help them out,” he said.
European majors and service firms signal interest—but skepticism remains
Executives from Italy’s Eni and Spain’s Repsol said they want to invest more and raise production; the two companies have a joint venture in Venezuela. Some private U.S. producers—including Hilcorp and Armstrong Oil & Gas—also indicated interest. Shell CEO Wael Sawan said the company could potentially invest “a few billion dollars.”
Oilfield services providers Halliburton and SLB (which currently works with Chevron in Venezuela) said they would like to expand activity as well.
Still, some industry observers say much of the public messaging sounded supportive without clear commitments. Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, described much of the executive commentary as “cheerleading,” with Exxon offering the most direct reality check.
“The interest is high; the willingness is unclear,” Pickering said, pointing to Venezuela’s political and operational instability.
Pickering estimated Venezuela could raise production by about 50% within three years—meaningful, but still far below historic levels. He also argued that a reopening of Venezuelan production could pressure oil prices, creating new competition for U.S. shale producers.
For Trump, lower crude prices could translate into lower gasoline prices, which he has emphasized as a priority.
Gulf Coast refiners say they can handle more Venezuelan crude
Trump also reiterated that the U.S. is working toward taking at least 30 million barrels of Venezuelan crude over time to the U.S. Gulf Coast, selling it to refiners and other buyers. Under the arrangement as described, proceeds would be held in external accounts controlled by the White House and largely returned to Venezuela depending on government cooperation.
Several major Gulf Coast refineries are configured to process Venezuela’s extra-heavy crude. Leaders from Valero Energy and Marathon Petroleum told Trump they could take additional Venezuelan barrels.
