President Donald Trump insisted this week that prices are “falling rapidly,” but new government data shows consumer costs are still climbing—just more slowly than earlier in the fall.
The Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% over the 12 months ending in November 2025, down from 3.0% in the 12 months through September. “Core” inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.6% year over year, also cooling notably from September’s 3.0% pace.
The report arrives amid unusual uncertainty about the underlying trend. A 43-day federal government shutdown disrupted normal CPI data collection and led to the cancellation of the October CPI report. As a result, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish standard month-to-month CPI changes for October and November, instead reporting changes over the two-month period from September to November.
Trump’s message vs. the numbers
In a televised address on Tuesday night, Trump argued that his administration is bringing costs down quickly. “I am bringing those high prices down, and bringing them down very fast,” he said, according to reporting that noted the CPI still shows prices rising overall.
White House officials highlighted the easing headline inflation rate after the CPI release, while economists urged caution given the data gaps created by the shutdown. Reuters reported that some analysts described the release as a “Swiss-cheese” report because of missing observations and the methodological workarounds needed to fill holes in the dataset.
Why economists are skeptical
Normally, the government gathers price data throughout the month. This time, BLS said CPI data collection resumed on November 14, meaning much of the month’s usual sample wasn’t collected. BLS also stated it could not retroactively collect October survey data, leaving a structural break in the series.
Economists quoted by Reuters warned the timing could bias results lower because late November often includes holiday promotions for categories like apparel and appliances. One economist told Reuters the report likely presented a “downwardly biased” view of inflation due to how missing October data were handled. (Reuters)
What’s still getting more expensive
Even with a cooler headline rate, several everyday essentials remained under pressure:
- Beef prices rose 15.8% year over year, with ground beef up 14.9%, according to Reuters’ summary of the data. (Reuters)
- Electricity rose 6.9% year over year, the biggest annual increase since April 2023, Reuters reported. (Reuters)
- Coffee surged 18.8% year over year, per Reuters. (Reuters)
There were also pockets of relief. Reuters noted that egg prices fell 13.2% year over year and gasoline was up a more modest 0.9% annually. (Reuters)
BLS’s own breakdown showed food prices up 2.6% over the year, with food at home up 1.9% and food away from home up 3.7%. Energy costs were a bigger driver, with the energy index up 4.2% over the last 12 months.
Tariffs, politics, and the 2026 backdrop
Reuters reported that inflation and affordability remain politically sensitive heading into 2026, and that some economists expect inflation to pick up as businesses continue passing through higher costs from import tariffs.
In that same report, Reuters cited estimates suggesting tariff pass-through to consumers was still unfolding through 2025, and that exemptions or rollbacks on select items may take time to show up at the checkout counter.
Markets and the Fed
Markets treated the report as broadly supportive for risk assets. Reuters reported U.S. stocks traded higher after the data, while Treasury yields fell and the dollar slipped.
The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, is attempting to balance easing inflation against a cooling labor market. Reuters reported the Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points last week to a 3.50%–3.75% range, but signaled it may not move quickly to cut further while it waits for clearer signals on inflation and jobs—especially given the shutdown-related distortions in recent data.
What to watch next
Because October’s CPI was never published and November’s report is considered less reliable than usual, economists and policymakers are expected to lean more heavily on upcoming data to confirm whether inflation is genuinely cooling—or simply looks better because of the shutdown’s statistical scars.
BLS has already set the next major checkpoint: the December 2025 CPI report is scheduled for release on January 13, 2026.
