President Donald Trump’s odds of completing his second term in office have dropped sharply in the wake of growing backlash over his administration’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case, according to betting firm Star Sports.
As of Thursday, the bookmaker was offering odds of 8/15 (or a 65.2% implied probability) that Trump would serve out his full term—down from 2/5 (71.4%) just a month ago. During that same time, odds of Trump leaving office before the end of the year jumped from 20/1 (4.8%) to 8/1 (11.1%).
The betting shift reflects mounting frustration from portions of Trump’s MAGA base, some of whom believe the federal government is concealing damaging information about Epstein’s powerful connections.
What Sparked the Drop?
The decline in confidence stems largely from a July 6 joint statement by the Department of Justice and FBI declaring that Epstein died by suicide in 2019 and that investigators had found “no incriminating ‘client list.’” That announcement infuriated activists and supporters who had hoped for further revelations and transparency about Epstein’s network.
Adding fuel to the fire, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that Trump was privately informed by Attorney General Pam Bondi in May that his name appeared “multiple times” in sealed Epstein-related records. The White House swiftly denied the claim, with communications director Steven Cheung calling it “another fake news story.”
Betting Analyst: Epstein Fallout Hurting Trump’s Base Support
William Kedjanyi, a political betting analyst at Star Sports, told Newsweek that the Epstein controversy marks the first time the issue has significantly threatened Trump’s standing among Republican voters and the broader MAGA movement.
“Trump has long advocated for releasing the Epstein files—even holding a White House event with influencers to celebrate their partial release,” Kedjanyi noted. “But now, he’s pushing back on further disclosures and even dismissing Epstein-related concerns as a ‘hoax’ crafted by Democrats.”
That shift has caused visible tension with some of Trump’s most loyal online supporters, many of whom were vocal advocates for full transparency.
Trump’s Changing Tone on Epstein
While campaigning in 2024, Trump told podcaster Lex Fridman that he would have “no problem” releasing all Epstein-related records if re-elected. But following the DOJ’s July memo, Trump changed his tune, labeling the controversy the “Jeffrey Epstein Hoax.”
Facing backlash, Trump later announced he had asked Attorney General Bondi to release any relevant grand jury testimony—pending court approval. Still, some supporters see his actions as a retreat from earlier promises.
Critics further point to House Speaker Mike Johnson’s surprise decision Tuesday to adjourn the chamber early for the summer, which effectively blocked a pending vote to release the Epstein files. The move drew anger from Trump’s base and raised speculation that GOP leadership was seeking to shield Trump from additional fallout.
What’s Next?
With Congress now on recess until September, pressure is expected to intensify both from within the MAGA movement and from Democrats who may push for a formal release of sealed Epstein documents. How Trump navigates the issue—and whether he reasserts his earlier stance on full transparency—could impact not only his public support but his odds of completing his second term.
Kedjanyi summed up the situation bluntly: “Trump has been dominant in U.S. politics for years, but the Epstein scandal is testing the loyalty of even his most devoted supporters. Where this goes next is anyone’s guess.”
