The devastating flash floods that swept through Central Texas over the Fourth of July weekend have left at least 95 people dead and dozens more missing. As search-and-rescue operations continue, questions are beginning to surface about the federal government’s preparedness—and whether President Donald Trump’s ongoing push to shrink government may have left critical agencies like the National Weather Service (NWS) and FEMA under-resourced when they were needed most.
The Broader Context: Trump’s Cuts Under Scrutiny
According to CNN President Trump’s philosophy of government is clear: cut back, privatize, and devolve responsibility to states. But when national tragedies strike—whether it’s a plane crash, a natural disaster, or a public health emergency—those cuts come under renewed scrutiny.
In Texas, the magnitude of the flood disaster has sparked fresh concerns over staffing shortages at weather forecasting offices and the administration’s broader approach to emergency management.
While no official inquiry has concluded that federal budget cuts directly contributed to the flooding tragedy, the situation has brought renewed attention to vacant forecasting roles, planned cuts to weather research, and the uncertain future of FEMA.
Flash Floods and a Region Caught Off Guard
The flood struck communities along the Guadalupe River, including the towns of Kerrville, Ingram, Center Point, and Hunt. Images from the scene show overturned vehicles, collapsed buildings, and communities mourning lost loved ones.
In one especially tragic incident, 27 people—mostly children—died at Camp Mystic, a girls’ summer camp on the riverbank.
Local officials say the floodwaters arrived with little warning. Mayor Joe Herring Jr. of Kerrville told CNN that even local leaders were blindsided.
“We didn’t even have a warning. We did not know,” he said through tears. “I lost friends.”
Were Forecasting Cuts a Factor?
The National Weather Service had issued watches, warnings, and emergency alerts before the flood, but whether those alerts effectively reached local emergency responders is now under review.
Former NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad told CNN the system may have broken down in “the last mile”—that crucial moment between forecasts being issued and actionable warnings being communicated locally.
A key coordination role in the San Antonio NWS office, which covers the affected area, has been vacant since April—left unfilled after the employee accepted a Trump administration buyout. Asked about the vacancy, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt claimed, “The offices were fully staffed with forecasters.”
A Pattern of Federal Retrenchment
Even before the flood, warnings had been raised about the Trump administration’s plans to dismantle weather-related infrastructure:
- A May CNN investigation found that a third of NWS offices nationwide lacked a lead meteorologist.
- In April, the administration proposed shuttering climate and weather research labs—a move critics say will undermine long-term preparedness.
- The Project 2025 blueprint, endorsed by Trump allies, recommends reducing federal funding for forecasting and shifting responsibilities to the private sector.
FEMA’s Role—and Its Future
Though Trump swiftly declared the flood zone a major disaster area, his long-term vision for FEMA remains unclear.
“We want to wean off of FEMA and bring it back to the state level,” Trump said in June.
That hands-off approach is already changing how disaster aid is distributed. CNN’s Gabe Cohen reported that disaster response decisions are now being made directly from the White House, bypassing traditional FEMA channels—raising concerns about politicized relief efforts. A Department of Homeland Security spokesperson has denied those claims.
When pressed Monday on whether Trump was rethinking his FEMA stance after the flood, Leavitt responded:
“The president wants to ensure American citizens always have what they need during times of need… Whether that assistance comes from states or the federal government, that’s a policy discussion that will continue.”
A Test for Small Government
The Texas flood comes just days after Trump signed a sweeping domestic bill that slashes funding for Medicaid, SNAP, and climate research—all in the name of shrinking federal power. It’s a defining theme of Trump’s second term: let states take the lead—or let services wither.
While it’s too early to definitively tie the flood response to any specific policy failure, the event highlights how federal disinvestment can ripple across disaster readiness, especially when extreme weather events—linked by many scientists to climate change—are growing more frequent and deadly.
“Once-in-a-Lifetime Flood”
CNN’s Pamela Brown, reporting from Texas, noted a deeply personal connection: she once attended Camp Mystic, the site of the deadliest loss of life.
“I do think it’s important to have patience and humility,” she said, “that those answers may not come as quickly as we want.”
Some residents described the flood as an “act of God.” Others are already asking whether this tragedy could have been mitigated—or if warning systems and resources failed a vulnerable community at a critical moment.
As investigations continue, the Texas flood is shaping up to be a pivotal test—not just of emergency response—but of the Trump administration’s gamble on smaller government.
